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Logical question for Sat
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Conan the Farmer
Posted 2/20/2017 21:01 (#5852904 - in reply to #5851534)
Subject: RE: Pitchfork Chart



South Central Iowa
Thanks for your thoughts. You've been in "the zone" too huh? Haha! Yeah, have to keep an open mind. After stepping back for a day and mulling it over, I still believe we are in a incredibly bullish set up. But like I said, it needs a trigger. Shouldn't have probably said that we get to $11.85ish regardless. That won't be the case. I think we will make an attempt. It might make last summer's corn spike look long-lived if we plant 90 million acres, no SA harvest issues, and we have great weather and rapid planting progress. It might occur all May, and fast! As long as we hold a floor of $9.10 this autumn, the set-up still remains bullish; although the cyclical idea kind of goes out the window. But I should add, my cyclical thoughts aren't very pure. I used our 2016 low of $9.34 and if I wanted to match the 2012 high of $17.89 and the 2008 low of $7.76'2, I should have used our low of $8.44'2, but it didn't match the time frame while $9.34 did. But I appreciate your reminder to be considerate of other things, thanks!

Anyway, I guess I made some targets to try to capture that spike if it occurs, which both you and I think it will, quick and early as it might be. I'll share them, maybe it can help you with yours as well if you were wanting input. I am leaning heavily to use 10% at $10.65, a trend line cross in May, 10% at $11.00, an even number, 10% at $11.35, the contract high in 2014, 10% at $11.50, all-time contract high and the ascending 2/3 speed in Nov contract in 1st week of July, and 10% at $11.80, just shy of the summer high Nov 2016 of $11.86'2. So that is 10% each at $10.65, $11.00, $11.35, $11.50, and $11.80; that would be 50% at $11.26 and then I will try to find what level of puts I could get for a dime at that high target and cover the other 50% of aph. I think I could probably get $10.40 puts for a dime if it got to $11.80 even for just a day in June or something. So that would aggregate me totally at $10.83 which would be a profitable area by $2.00 or so for me. Then if it runs to $14, my futures plays should make me money and I don't care about the dime per bushel for puts on the remainder.

10% at $10.65, $11.00, $11.35, $11.50, & $11.80 and 50% remainder in 10 cent puts at best level, probably $10.20-$10.60.
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