|
SE ND | Hi Conan,
I like your work and it all makes perfect sense. You may have been at this far longer than I, but I do think that one needs to be careful when posting projections like that. Could it happen? Absolutely! Could price fail to reach the ML of the controlling fork? Absolutely! It's totally possible that price could get pulled out in time by hagopianing this controlling fork at some point, just as what happened to the downsloper.The thing with correctly drawn forks is that they have probabilities associated with them achieving balance, and if it fails, that is also telling you something. I have spent countless hours doing exactly what you're doing with those projections. The thing is that it's so easy to be blind to what price is actually telling you. Trust me, there are many reading market talk that think so-and-so has it figured out. I know because when I started reading here I believe it myself. The thing is that nobody has it all figured out. Even the best traders use stops. Why? Because even they know that they could have it wrong and are simply trading probabilities. Not trying to discourage you from your work at all. Just want you to see that things aren't always black and white. I learned it the hard way myself.
btw: my thoughts on beans for the next year plus aren't far from yours, but price will have the final say. We need to be attentive.
Take care | |
|
Logical question for Sat
