There are a couple locations which have popped their basis bids for wheat by.. over $.30+ trying to attract bushels.. I'll let others talk about them except to say this.. protein is huge.. with average values running from as low as 8% to more normal values of 11% and up..  The 8% is basically feed wheat values.. If you can approach Spring Wheat quality.. then it's worth more like that..  (tip for the day.. your welcome.;-)  Everyone needs protein from the millers to terminals and shuttle loaders to blend the crap up with.. so things are starting to move there.

Sorghum.. Some states flexed heavily into Sorghum from the Chinese influenced price spike a few years ago.. 

( http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/nass/CropProd//2010s/2016/Crop... )

For Instance Arkansas (only looking up harvested acres..) harvested 37 myn acres this past year vs 440 myn in 2015.. Mississippi 18 vs 115 myn and Missou..RAH 66 myn vs 140..  As well as the influences as you have noted from the SCA.

This is one of the major reasons influencing the lagging sorghum exports this year.

More Inland.. the primary demand for Sorghum has been for Ethanol and other industrial which went from 14 myn bushels in 14/15 basically "nil" as ethanol plants shipped sorghum OUT and replaced it with Corn in the grind.. to 141 myn bushels in 15/16 as the opposite occured on the big crop/price drop as Sorghum bought it's way back INTO the grind..  Not a lot of people talked about that but we noticed it here..

Now the acres are falling and the battle for Sorghum between the exporters and the ethanol plants has moved to Kansas Terminals and shuttle loaders..

Out west (for instance where the photos above were taken..) specifically the Dodge City area has switched to Sorghum in a BIG WAY.. and STAYED mostly with it.. NO DOUBT there's more Sorghum stubble and wheat stubble intended for Sorghum.. than planted wheat acres.. which is probably a major switch vs say a decade ago..  However Some of THAT sorghum has been pulled down into the Texas panhandle as they want feed demand.. true story.. neighbor sold sorghum out of the bin about 20 miles sw of Dodge.. and it went to Texas panhandle.. last year.  As far or farther than some corn movements out there.. plus the ethanol plants in Garden.. Liberal.. Campus.. Russell.. and Pratt.. and the hog feeders.. Smithfield in Ashland.. and others.

Now Weather.. Golly this is starting to get some play.. NOT MY FORECAST.. (don't blame me..) and I don't know HOW MUCH to give credence to it..

but someone paid $$$ to listen to it so.. from 2nd hand sources.. in Cali they are being told that this year is gonna play out like 2011.. the LAST TIME Cali had BIG RAINS in Jan.. Feb.. etc rainy period.. and violia..



( http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml )

There they are.. so maybe this guru knows what he is talking about.. supposedly HE SAID.. (paraphrasing from 2nd hand source..)

"El Nino and La Nina are Over used terms.. there are El Nino's which can be Dry as well as La Nina's which can be wet.. AND IT DEPENDS WHERE you are.. in the country..
For Instance the Last La Nina in 2011 was WET for California as well as the Missouri River Basin... (remember the flooding rains.. and the floods downstream from Gavin's point dam..??)  but DRY in the Southern PLAINS certainly SOUTH of about I-70.. (NW Kansas actually raised a good crop.. Tribune had 240+ irrigated corn.. NE Colorado had DRYLAND corn..)

We've identified 18 (or some number around that..??) distinct patterns which repeat.. in OUR model for Cali's outlook.. 2017 is going to be most like 2011.."

.. my source didn't know or didn't tell me what they were looking for east of Cali..  ??

That's all I know.. but 2011 was an active northern jet stream that slammed storms into Cali.. and then turned it NORTH up and OVER the SOUTHERN PLAINS.. which FRIED that summer in a "HEAT STORM" environment.. we had 50'ish days over 100.. like 12 over 105 and like 5 over 110 here..  WHILE the Northern Plains.. N Dakota got their normal rainfall PLUS OURS (how we look at it..) which was a LATE SPRING limiting plantings.. ALOT of Prevented Plantings up there in 2011.

We fried dry..  weather outlook on radio for Southern Plains that summer.. "Guys what we got here is 40,000 FEET of SUPER DRY AIR From New Mexico over to Arkansas from South Texas to I-70.. it's where the moisture in Cold Fronts go to DIE!!"

yup..  I swear in August when it regularly over 100 degrees at 10 pm you could almost take a glass of water and turn it upside down and it would vaporize before it hit the ground.. tall tail.. but it felt like it.. Growing CORN that year in SCKansas.. on my farm took 40+ inches of APPLIED WATER.. vs something like 9" two years before..  I didn't harvest much dryland fall crops.. some fields NOTHING standing over my knee.. wow.. even PIGWEEDS DIED.. double wow..

.. I wasn't really running the show in the early 1980's.. but 2011 was THE WORST drought in my farming Career.. but it was similar to 81.. or 83.. or something like that.. when I was a kid in HS.. we lost our irrigated corn crop one of those years and QUIT raising Corn for about a decade afterwards..

SO.. NOT SAYING that 2017 will be like that HERE.. I DO NOT KNOW...

but as I said.. just mention the year 2011 to producers around here and they will assume the fetal position grabbing their blanky with occasional outburst crying for MAMA!!

IF THAT is what is coming.. well...??

And it would line up with what MY guru has stated... 2011.. 2012 was the opening act.. then a reprieve.. then another round or two before the whole AMO/PDO cycle moves on some time in the early 2030's...  He was/has been telling us since about 2012'ish that 2017.. 2018'ish would "probably" be another round..

"gulp"

.. so THAT would line up...  but AGAIN I am NOT a meterologist.. so.. I DO NOT KNOW.

Or we could get timely rains.. a couple lucky big storms come in from the South West.. over Baha Cali in Mexico and we get Lucky with Gulf Moisture pulled in...???

.. it could happen.

All I'm saying is what I've heard others say..  "telling us 2017 is gonna be like 2011.."

whatever THAT means...???