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Ethanol stocks vs Crude Oil Stocks.. 144 Rotary Rigs now parked.
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JonSCKs
Posted 1/29/2015 18:21 (#4347911 - in reply to #4347853)
Subject: Fair point.. Ethanol storage capacity is only half full.


Fair Point.. but the answer is still

"Yes."

We're 54% full of dedicated capacity.. and we could lease.. ALOT more if needed.. Bulk Gasoline storage is like 10 times larger.

Here's the data as of 9/30/14

http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/storagecapacity/table1.pdf

Table 1. Working Storage Capacity by PAD District as of September 30, 2014

  

(Thousand Barrels)

  

Commodity

1

2

3

4

5

U.S. Total

EndingStocks

UtilizationRate1

Refineries

Crude Oil

15,408

18,877

75,006

4,006

34,756

148,053

92,706

63%

Fuel Ethanol

151

144

272

127

69

763

596

78%

Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases2

1,151

10,857

25,054

587

2,166

39,815

19,826

50%

Propane/Propylene (dedicated)3

405

3,648

4,061

51

197

8,362

4,793

NA

Motor Gasoline (incl. Motor Gasoline Blending Components)

8,493

26,335

54,446

6,373

26,938

122,585

68,611

56%

Distillate Fuel Oil

5,508

13,795

28,419

3,882

10,175

61,779

30,836

50%

Kerosene and Kerosene-type Jet Fuel

1,169

4,007

9,849

654

6,816

22,495

13,266

59%

Residual Fuel Oil

1,476

3,070

9,104

473

7,054

21,177

9,459

45%

Asphalt and Road Oil

2,323

8,169

5,125

2,106

2,013

19,736

7,820

40%

All Other4

13,686

29,906

89,240

6,750

34,462

174,044

94,025

54%

Total5

49,365

115,160

296,515

24,958

124,449

610,447

337,145

55%

Bulk Terminals (Including Fuel Ethanol Plants)6

Fuel Ethanol

13,204

13,644

5,673

421

4,231

37,173

18,063

49%

Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases2

11,030

62,013

306,012

1,280

7,692

388,027

155,427

40%

Propane/Propylene (dedicated)3

7,961

26,723

86,149

596

2,716

124,145

65,861

NA

Motor Gasoline (incl. Motor Gasoline Blending Components)

80,307

50,252

54,232

3,565

22,392

210,748

97,082

46%

Distillate Fuel Oil

78,355

34,891

29,455

2,435

14,405

159,541

69,798

44%

Kerosene and Kerosene-type Jet Fuel

13,540

6,577

6,499

533

8,308

35,457

17,363

49%

Residual Fuel Oil

24,836

1,328

40,348

-

4,127

70,639

27,129

38%

Asphalt and Road Oil

10,788

14,126

5,233

2,051

3,626

35,824

10,769

30%

All Other7

8,803

3,743

18,004

91

5,261

35,902

10,615

30%

Total

240,863

186,574

465,456

10,376

70,042

973,311

406,246

42%

Product Pipelines

Fuel Ethanol

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Natural Gas Plant Liquids and Liquefied Refinery Gases2

-

2,497

3,304

-

-

5,801

2,426

42%

Propane/Propylene (dedicated)3

-

425

745

-

-

1,170

551

NA

Motor Gasoline (incl. Motor Gasoline Blending Components)

13,986

8,998

15,641

327

999

39,951

9,682

24%

Distillate Fuel Oil

8,434

5,840

12,335

331

667

27,607

7,431

27%

Kerosene and Kerosene-type Jet Fuel

4,645

2,180

4,598

-

343

11,766

2,457

21%

All Other8

-

2

60

19

2

83

-

0%

Total

27,065

19,517

35,938

677

2,011

85,208

21,996

26%

Crude Tank Farms

Crude Oil (Excluding SPR)

3,974

117,253

210,614

13,139

27,899

372,879

146,797

39%

Cushing, Oklahoma

--

70,812

--

--

--

70,812

17,680

25%

Strategic Petroleum Reserve

-

-

727,000

-

-

727,000

690,038

95%

 

Ethanol Storage capacity at Refineries are listed as 763 k bbls.. ( a little under a week's production.. last week was 978 k bbls http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w )

While ethanol storage at Bulk Terminals are listed as 37,173 k bbls (vs 20,631 k bbls TOTAL in store last week.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W )

thus we have.. 763 + 37,173 = 37,936 and had 20,631 in it or.. 54% full.  Golly what are we worried about..??

plus "If we had to.." we could "probably" lease a tank or two.. from a bulk storage facility that collectively has capacity to store 210,748 k bbls of Gasoline or BLENDING components.. which as of 9/30/14 was only 46% full at 97,082 leaving 113,666 k bbls of room...  Granted that was at the END of the Summer driving season.. so that would probably be a seasonally low number... but still.

Could you rent enough to store the ENTIRE US ETHANOL Inventory?.. YES.. 20,631 into 113,666 you would only need 18% of the UNUSED part.. now that would cost something...

but then again.. ethanol is trading at PRETTY CHEAP values.. and COULD be WORTH ALOT MORE.. in the future...

...

..

.

"hmmm."

..

Wonder how much it would cost to rent storage? 

Wonder how much ethanol is going to go up between now and the summer driving season...???

hmm.. might need to give this some more thought...

Anybody want to partner up?



Edited by JonSCKs 1/29/2015 18:30
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