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Mascoutah, Illinois | 2009 corn crop yielded 164.7 bushels per acre
2010 corn crop yielded 152.8 bushels per acre
The difference in the two years is a reduction of 7.23% in yield.
2014 corn crop yielded 171.0 bushels per acre.
2015 crop:
WAG
90 million acres times 93% harvested times 158.64 (171bpa less 7.23%) bushels per acre nets a crop of 13.278 billion bushels
The last carryover number I recollect was 1.877 billion bushels.
In taking the 2014 crop less the 2015 crop, we end up with roughly 1 billion fewer bushels which takes carryout down under 900 million.
This scenario only plays out if you believe 2009-2010 is 2014-2015.
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