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If 2009-2010 is 2014-2015 here it is...
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Posted 2/26/2015 20:08 (#4416567 - in reply to #4416423)
Subject: RE: If 2009-2010 is 2014-2015 here it is...


UofI says roughly a 164 trend yield for 2015. http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2015/02/expectations-for-2015-us-a...

Also about a 60/40 split for above/below trend years. Had two above trend years so by odds the next one would be below.

UofI also states that with the higher figures for trend that USDA is using vs theirs that it's showing a 150-200 mil bu higher production

So where does that leave US numbers for 2016? Good question. I think things could be as bad as 2012 like you mention for CO or could be as good as this year. Possibly the markets or who control them are playing with fire and may not get the acres we need. I heard Suderman even mention this as bearish as he is. Also read another good one today that bankers may control the corn acres more than anything this year...FWIW
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