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| market sentiment changed.
futures are a thin market.
Supply demand Fundamentals did not change from 2 months ago.
Maybe producer sentiment is too high.
Function of the market is to hurt as many people as possible.
money flow makes it go further than anyone thinks it will.
perceptions and money flow trends.
These are copy and paste's of comments in #2.
Comments that one can put into any of our markets.
S & D has nothing to do with these comments.
USDA reports have nothing to do with them.
I well add the day corn topped in 2012, 74.88% of Ag Web thought corn would be $8-10 by 1-31-2013 The were several guess's on this producer poll over $10,some 11 with a very few over $12.00 corn. The vast majority "the most" were proven wrong,when major highs OR lows are made,,,the vast majorly is almost ALWAYS proven wrong. I remember that 74.88% and still have the added machine paper taped behind my computer screen. I bought 5 extra OTM ZCZ puts for a WTF trade with the ONLY reason being that 74.88%,,,,it working well to be the "odd ball"
Now the subject line MPL wheat (thinly traded markets)
Normalish OI was 30-40k prior to the massive E -boom run-up.
Peak OI was just over 70k,this peak was 4 months before its high of over $24
The peak spec long was near 20k
By the time the high was printed,,,10k of those spec long had banked some UN-real profits as MEWH8 ran from 8-9ish to over $24 Some of these loss's came from the CWB/ ND State Mill/my BTO buddy loss 180k and sure others had major loses. I call my self a fairly seasoned trader,,,but this one scared the living poop out of me and *****I did not trade MWE for over 2 years til it really REALLY overly was shaken out*****I either did str 8 cash or HTA's
Here's a point and case teachable moment (please don't take this as bragging)
I was lucky enough to have one Co-op that would still write HTA's.
I did a HTA @ 10.30 MWEZ2009
I had to give them .30 for the risk of doing that HTA.
I had $10 locked in for 2009's wheat,when the market was 5.50ish that fall of 2009
This was a very large Co-op. I was the ONLY ONE that had 2009 wheat sold in 2008.
I WAS THE ODD BALL,as "the most" vast vast vast most in this case was proven wrong.
I knew guys that were "offered" $26 cash wheat,"the most" did not sell. I know for a fact some is still in the his tin cans. I go to fair amount of marketing meeting,have yet to here anyone explain a supply and demand that justified $26 cash wheat. My very strong hunch is no one will ever be able to really justify feeders over $240 after this one shakes out.
I could do this whole comparison to Cotton and Cattle also, but hopping I made my money flows point strong enough MWE tho :o) | |
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MPL WHEAT/CATTLE # 3
