Centre county Pennsylvania, USA | In an earlier thread on Iowa cropland rent, w1891 asked two significant questions:
(1) "Would gross revenue show any type of pattern?"
(2) "Do increasing trend yields mean more bushels can be paid as rent?"
I used machine learning python scripts to mine USDA's historical data, downloaded from their QuickStats2 server, for answers to those questions. Those (machine learned) answers are summarized below:
Simple linear regression on USDA's reported multi-year data suggests the answer to both questions is yes. The 1st attached chart shows USDA's most recent 21 years of Iowa cropland rent as a percent of Iowa cropland gross revenue. The chart shows that Iowa crop land rent, as a percent of Iowa cropland revenue, has a weak (low R-squared) negative linear trend of about -0.38 % per year.
That statistical pattern shows that Iowa crop land rents, measured in #2 yellow corn commodity money, were trending down in that 21 year period, and could have supported more bushels paid as rent. One explanation for that downward trend in land rent is the upward trend in corn yields during that 21 year period. Similar statistical behavior (negative trend in crop land rent and positive trend in corn yield) was found in USDA historical data for all other geographic areas where corn is grown. For example, the 2nd chart shows similar statistical behavior for cropland rent in the entire US corn production geographical area.
Notice that corn price in those charts is the geographical area's cash corn price in June of the year following the crop (and rent) year. The market strategy in those charts is plant, harvest, and on-farm store (un-priced) until the following June. These statistical patterns found in USDA’s data are not advocating that un-protected bushels market strategy, or any other market strategy. However; they do appear to dispel the common belief that renting cropland favors the landlord over the corn farmer. Cropland rent trends shown in the USDA data appear to be reasonable, for both.
 (IOWA land rent_as_percent_revenue.jpg)
 (US TOTAL land rent_as_percent_revenue.jpg)
Attachments
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 IOWA land rent_as_percent_revenue.jpg (52KB - 628 downloads)
US TOTAL land rent_as_percent_revenue.jpg (50KB - 605 downloads)
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Iowa crop land rent as percent of cropland gross revenue
