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Ethanol update.
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JonSCKs
Posted 6/29/2020 08:53 (#8343052)
Subject: Ethanol update.


Been busy with Wheat Harvest.. we're mostly done save a few mudholes here and there..  Good harvest for us.. less acres.. slightly above average on yield but drops off fast to our west.. Hail and drought concerns out there.. dryness and winds have returned.. dryland fall crops will become stressed soon.

Ethanol.  Each week we see more production coming back online. so that's good we've drawn down ethanol stocks so the market keeps trying to put margin back into it for the ethanol plants then the Oil Companies or someone slaps em down.  The pressure on keeping margins thin are making ethanol cheap.. and maybe halting the Crude oil move higher.. along with a resurgence in Covid.

If we have to shut down the Country AGAIN.. that will be bad.

If we can continue to see improvement in driving.. that will be helpful.

We need to keep the pressure on EPA NOT to Go around the 10th Circuit ruling by back filling waivers.. which I wouldn't think the Court would like either.. If Trump administration allows this.. it will probably cost him Iowa and the final nail in the coffin..  So it's going to be an important matter.

If we have a big crop?  If the drought doesn't expand in the SW..  ethanol margins could improve and the grind should improve somewhat.. but the ethanol producers have been hurt enough that they are not eager to grind themselves into negative margins at this point.. Valero et all are slow to restart.. last I heard.. so.. the ethanol sector is not eager to bail out the corn market from a big crop at this point.

And it's possible that we may not see the sector return to where it was any time soon..  I hate to be that pessimistic.. but alot is on the line right now.  Lower corn prices will probably work things out for all involved.  If we have the crop coming that some say we do...???

Probably owning an ethanol plant will pay vs farming.. the plants have worked for the farmers.. probably gonna switch now.. farming will suck and ownership in a processor will be better...???
idk.

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindVs Last yearChangeSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand   Motor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion  Ethanol as % of
                      
9/6/20191023 930 0 22,49959% 279.0 1953  1209.0105,531105,22130998079.48% 
9/13/20191003 905 11 23,23861% 3.4 24  908.4103,467108,419-4,952893910.12% 
9/20/2019943 935 113 22,50059% 226.4 1585  1161.497,278106,872-9,594934610.00% 
9/27/2019958 923 0 23,21961% -67.7 -47430882540855.398,825104,705-5,880913710.10% 
10/4/2019963 917 0 21,22456% 331.0 2317  1248.099,341107,284-7,94394609.69% 
10/11/2019971 942 0 22,06158% -90.6 -634  851.4100,166104,293-4,126935410.07% 
10/18/2019996 928 28 21,36456% 195.6 1369  1123.6102,745105,634-2,88895909.68% 
10/25/20191004 936 53 21,09956% 158.9 1112416426891094.9103,571109,244-5,67497849.57% 
11/1/20191014 917 0 21,87458% -13.7 -96  903.3104,602110,173-5,571914510.03% 
11/8/20191030 940 0 20,98555% 217.0 1519  1157.0106,253110,069-3,817932110.08% 
11/15/20191033 929 4 20,51454% 175.3 1227  1104.3106,562107,491-928919210.11% 
11/22/20191059 930 36 20,27753% 198.9 1392  1128.9109,244108,1091,135920410.10% 
11/29/20191060 902 11 20,63954% 117.3 821486325581019.3109,347110,276-92890329.99% 
12/6/20191072 858 66 21,81558% 112.0 784  970.0110,585107,9032,68288829.66% 
12/13/20191064 912 0 21,79857% 154.4 1081  1066.4109,760107,9031,85794119.69% 
12/20/20191083 938 0 21,46957% 192.0 1344  1130.0111,720107,4914,229930310.08% 
12/27/20191066 884 0 21,03455% 244.1 1709491834901128.1109,966104,2935,67489619.86% 
1/3/20201062 801 0 22,46259% 57.0 399  858.0109,554103,1586,39681339.85% 
1/10/20201095 854 25 23,00661% 188.3 1318  1042.3112,958108,4194,53985589.98% 
1/17/20201049 864 0 24,03163% 38.6 270  902.6108,213106,3561,85786629.97% 
1/24/20201029 873 0 24,24464% 125.6 879  998.6106,149104,3961,75487939.93% 
1/31/20201081 888 0 23,47462% 303.0 2121498736021191.0111,51499,75411,76089339.94% 
2/7/20201033 873 0 24,35864% 33.7 236  906.7106,562106,149413872210.01% 
2/14/20201040 896 0 24,78165% 83.6 585  979.6107,284102,7454,539891810.05% 
2/21/20201054 902 35 24,71865% 196.0 1372  1098.0108,728106,0462,68290359.98% 
2/28/20201079 897 0 24,96466% 146.9 1028322146241043.9111,307105,6345,67491869.76% 
3/6/20201044 919 9 24,33464% 224.0 1568  1143.0107,697103,6744,02394499.73% 
3/13/20201035 915 0 24,59865% 82.3 576  997.3106,768103,5713,19896969.44% 
3/20/20201005 874 0 24,14064% 196.4 1375  1070.4103,674100,5793,09588379.89% 
3/27/2020840 601 0 25,71768% 13.7 9636153337614.786,653103,055-16,40266599.03% 
4/3/2020672 502 0 27,09171% -26.3 -184  475.769,322103,364-34,04250659.91% 
4/10/2020570 506 0 27,46972% 10.0 70  516.058,800104,808-46,00850819.96% 
4/17/2020563 523 0 27,68973% 8.6 60  531.658,078108,109-50,03253119.85% 
4/24/2020537 583 0 26,33769% 147.1 1030976 730.155,396105,634-50,23858609.95% 
5/1/2020598 595 0 25,61268% 106.6 746  701.661,688106,872-45,18366648.93% 
5/8/2020617 666 0 24,19064% 154.1 1079  820.163,648108,419-44,77173989.00% 
5/15/2020663 680 0 23,62662% 63.6 445  743.668,394110,482-42,088679010.01% 
5/22/2020724 712 0 23,17661% 76.3 534  788.374,686109,038-34,35272539.82% 
5/29/2020765 720 0 22,47659% 145.0 10153819 865.078,916107,697-28,78175499.54% 
6/5/2020837 765 0 21,80257% 168.3 1178  933.386,343113,061-26,71879009.68% 
6/12/2020841 789 0 21,34656% 117.1 820  906.186,756111,514-24,758787010.03% 
6/19/2020893 831 0 21,03455% 106.6 7462744 937.692,120110,585-18,46586089.65% 
                      
19/20 MY 41 wks930.2 825.1 9.3 23197.261% 123.8 866.53639.53262.9948.995,956105,404-448,6348400.09.81% 
18/19 MY 41 wks1033.7 913.7 4.0 23203.361% 127.8 894.93718.93146.71041.5106,631109,030 9224.49.91% 
                      15 byn target: 978.0            -10,674.4-3,626    
19/20 vs 18/19-10.0% -9.7% 1 0.0%  -3.2% -3.2%-2.1%3.7%-8.9%-10.0%-47,143bu lower-8.9%-1.0% 
   -15.6%        estimatedReported      
 1072 951 Last year21567.0yr ago   893  1079   946610.05% 

Cheers.

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

 

Ethanol Supply and Disposition https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_SUM_SND_A_EPOOXE_MBBL_M_CUR.htm



Edited by JonSCKs 6/29/2020 08:54
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