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EPA Clearly missed opportunity to Support Ethanol as well as Ag in recent ruling.
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JonSCKs
Posted 4/7/2020 07:09 (#8171025 - in reply to #8170966)
Subject: Propping up this leg.. you prop up Ag


This is the CHEAPEST way to Support Ag while our Country is under Attack from the Virus

REMEMBER that ETHANOL is an OCTANE.. as much as a THIRD of a Gallon of Gasoline is OCTANE!!  If the Ethanol Industry DIES during this Crisis.. how do we RESTART afterwards??

So It's NOT competing with Gasoline.. it's Competing with OCTANE.. which ethanol is STILL the Cheapest source.  Not only does this Help Ag.. it helps the Consumer/taxpayer $$$ and basically pays for itself in a short period.

The Oil boys are getting the Reserve.. and they will cut Production.. When the lights come back on.. we'll be at $50.. $70 Crude Oil in a heartbeat.. once the backlog clears.. but if we're going up,, they will STORE IT.. once it's found a home.

So.. 25.7 myn Ethanol stocks.. / 650 k bbls per day = 40 days of supply.. plus how much we grind.. say 50%.. that's 500 k bbls per day.. 

25.7.. your running on fumes if you go below 40%.. remember this has to be RAILED to distribution.. which can take.. a month.. idk but I do know it takes "awhile."

so 25.7 x 60% = 15,420 k bbls of cushion.. demand of 650'ish = 23.7 days..

650'ish demand + exports of ??? = 700 ish.. - 500 production = 200 draw.. lasts.. 15,420 / 200 = 77 days or 2.57 months.

500 k bbls per day or around 50% capacity would run.. like.. 

500 x 42 = 21 myn gallons / 2.8 conversion = 7.5 myn bushels per day x 7 = 52.5 myn per week

52.5 million x $1 = 52.5 million x 52 weeks = $2.73 Billion for a year.

vs like at the producer level.. 14 byn bu crop.. x $1 = $14 Billion.. Which would be EQUIVALENT to WHAT WE DID in the 1980's

Accomplishes basically the Same thing.. BETTER since you can adjust the grind and payout by week.. 

13 wks at 50% x $1.00, 7 wks at 75% x $0.50.. 52 weeks at 85% x $0.25 etc.. and so forth.. or Something like that

for $0.20 on the dollar vs the WAY we DID it in the 1980's.. AND you DON'T have to IDLE 33% of the Corn land base because you DON'T have A HOME to PUT IT!!  Although we do need to find a home for the ethanol.. Demand for Octane is not going to ZERO.. CCC can allocate a production rate.. might be cycle on.. one cycle off.. or something like that.. IDK.. in Exchange for CCC funds to purchase Grain.

This is a NO BRAINER PEOPLE

It will Work.. and stem the losses until we figure out what to do next.

Get on the phones.

I've moved VERY FAST on this.. maybe I've missed some things but this idea seems VERY ROBUST to ME.. but if we need to Tweak it.. we can.

We did the Blenders Credit to jumpstart the ethanol industry.. so that's nothing new.. THIS TIME PAYMENTS should go to the ETHANOL PRODUCERS!!

We're working on building out the Blender pumps infrastructure.. so that we can offer MORE EFFICIENT Higher Octane engines in the Future.. What NEEDS TO HAPPEN!!

I also like the idea that the CCC can regulate it.. IF we have success early.. the Stock market was up big yesterday and looks good this morning.. then the CCC can step back as the sun comes out.. IF NOT.. then we'll slug our way THROUGH THIS CRISIS.

We are NOT turning back now.



Edited by JonSCKs 4/7/2020 07:23
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