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Hope this forecast is wrong
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rollinsorchards
Posted 6/13/2019 06:16 (#7556300 - in reply to #7555314)
Subject: RE: Hope this forecast is wrong


Garland Maine
I am pretty sure that this graph is showing the maximum predictions added together.

Sure you can have some rain events that are predicted to range from a tenth to two inches, and you won’t get all of them, and you won’t get 2 inches out of each one also.

So you could call it a computer glitch. More like the old “garbage in - garbage out” mantra. If the forecasters are putting in a wide range to cover their behinds, the graph is picking up only the high points.

I see this all the time with computer models for fungicide depletion on apples. 2 inches of rain means we need to re-apply, but the computer models take the high prediction on all the periods.
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