| J P - 5/6/2019 06:04
Blame it on whatever or whoever you want, but we are here because we had to be here - and all of it stems from the "good times" a decade ago.
This is what many cannot - or refuse - to see. In the bear market, the seeds are sown for the bull. In the bull, the seeds are sown for the bear. Read Eccliesiastes 3. This is old, old knowledge. And nothing has changed since that was written.
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Ecclesiastes+3&version=...
No, I'm not a particularly religious person, but there is a lot of knowledge recorded in that book.
How I've grown to think about most things is - everything is born with the seeds of its own destruction. Living beings, companies, governments, and, yes, bull and bear markets. When we rolled over the top in 2012, it was as clear as day that the probabilities were that we were going to do pretty much exactly what we have done. I say probabilities because the markets are what is called chaotic, and predictions can always be frustrating. But, in each of the last three times we have done this, the time it took from the time the market rolled over to when the cash price just stopped going lower was the same. And after that, it takes some time to build demand for the next one.
Another way to think about this is how I've thought about it for a very long time - The bigger the party, the worse the hangover. Thinking this way was pretty much how I made my living in the cattle market for so many years.
(A note to Dublin - while 2024 was the target, there are at least a couple of things that might be wild cards. That was a drought year - the only one in the last thirty years! Timing, even if similar to the past, might be off a couple of years. And, there are some indications that the climate is swinging back to cold, and most everyone is conditioned to ignore early or late frosts.) |
Shout out to JP!!
