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| Because of the reasons you stated, I’m not nearly as bearish corn. New all time net short in corn = me not selling. Just like new all time record net long in cattle = me selling...
Now if your talking old crop vs new crop, that’s two very different markets. April cattle can do whatever it wants to the upside. I’ll maintain my bearishness in June. A squeeze could be on for market ready cattle in April. But that’s not a limb im willing to step out on. Although history in the spreads tells me that’s typical.
And if your worried about a .20 drop in corn that’s really not too much.
Ethanol I pay way more attention to basis than I do cattle price direction. We’ve had a negative basis in Jan Feb Mar and April until 2 weeks ago Nebraska went positive and then last week south went even and north went plus 1.50-3, kinda depending how you view it. 2006-2008 were the last times I can see that that happened.
Me not selling new crop corn = bullish for reason you stated.
Me selling cattle for funds being net long = bearish for reason you stated.
I may be wrong, but at least I’ll be consistent!!!
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Cattle
