Centre county Pennsylvania, USA | ZCK19 has been down trending at a linear rate of 0.824 cents/day/bushel for the most recent 30 market day period. Projecting that linear trend 10 market days ahead in time suggests that the expected (mean) price will be 8.24 cents/bushel below today's trend price with standard deviation of 3.33 cents/bushel. Assuming no significant change in volatility, ZCK19 10 day forecast 97% confidence interval range is 8.24 +- 10 cents/bushel below today's trend price, or 12.56 cents/bushel below today's closing price.
Attached screensnap shows the parts diagram for this forecast. Long margin of error shown on the chart legend is the difference between today's closing price and trend price. That Margin of error assumes that price will revert to trend in the forecast period.
 (Screenshot from 2019-03-14 19-16-15 (full).png)
Attachments
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 Screenshot from 2019-03-14 19-16-15 (full).png (84KB - 132 downloads)
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ZCK19 (May 2019 corn) 10 day price forecast
