Posted 2/9/2019 13:24 (#7309071 - in reply to #7308969) Subject: RE: Hog Chart June
Just some fundamental things to think about. Everybody, and I mean everybody....has been thinking ASF is going to be the rocket fuel. Some thought it would’ve lit already. And I suppose that is some of the reason for selloff in Apr recently along with bigger than expected numbers.
Will this be another year summer months do not break above 90? I think yes, without a trade deal. And after all consider Mexico still has a tariff on our exports. But...but..we have a deal....yes, a verbal one. Nothing has been passed by Congress and officially signed...tariffs still on. As the song says “don’t mean nothing till you sign it on the dotted line”
So I’m sure you’ve come across commentary that is always talking about how “yuuuggge” pork exports to China could be. Truly mind boggling. Why aren’t they ramping up buying now? Why wait until their supply has been cut in half? The Chinese New Year is the most traveled time in the world. There has been reports of pork products in trash at airports (Chinese like fresh not frozen) and this is the perfect conduit for the spread of ASF. With that said, should ASF be confirmed in the US...exports would be decimated. Same commentators that talk rocket fuel also give caution to this...projecting prices to plummet to the $20’s.