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Historical revisions for Arg, Brazil soybean carryovers
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JonSCKs
Posted 2/8/2019 13:03 (#7306579 - in reply to #7306220)
Subject: Who filled the 20 mmt Soybean HOLE that China did not take from the US?


"The 2018/19 global soybean outlook includes lower production, exports, crush, and stocks. Global soybean production is lowered 8.2 million tons to 361.0 million with lower crops for Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and South Africa. Production for Brazil is lowered 5 million tons to 117 million due to dryness in parts of the South and Center-West regions. Production for Argentina is lowered 0.5 million tons to 55 million due to a reduction in harvested area that is partly offset by increased yields. Global soybean exports are reduced 1.7 million tons to 154.4 million. Lower exports for Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay are partly offset by higher exports for Argentina. Global imports are also reduced mainly on a 2-million-ton reduction for China due to lower crush demand.

Global 2018/19 soybean marketing-year ending stocks are lowered 8.6 million tons this month to 106.7 million, which is an 8.6-million-ton increase over the 2017/18 estimate. In addition to croprelated changes, this month’s lower global ending stocks forecast reflects historical balance sheet revisions for Argentina (back to 2009/10) and Brazil (back to 1999/00). The revisions were motivated by supply and demand conditions indicating that beginning stock levels for the 2017/18 local year should be higher in Brazil and lower in Argentina than previously estimated. Additionally, these revisions are more in line with historical stocks revisions made in late 2018 by Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture and Brazil’s Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE).

With Argentina’s 2018 crop falling 30 percent below initial projections due to the drought, soybean stocks are assumed to be lower than prior estimates. The post-drought stocks-to-use ratio had been projected at 38 percent for the 2017/18 local year (April 2018-March 2019). The USDA’s estimates are guided by Argentina’s official crush, trade, and production data. Projected stocks are reduced with upward revisions to residuals, which take into account supplies needed for reported use, statistical errors, and possible unreported demand during the past decade.

While stocks are reduced for Argentina, Brazil’s stocks are revised higher starting in 1999/00. Record exports during October 2018-January 2019, the end of Brazil’s 2017/18 local year (February 2018-January 2019), motivated the revisions. Record late-season exports made it apparent that, in addition to a record crop, beginning stocks were higher than previously estimated. Brazil’s ending stocks were revised over several years to increase supplies in order to meet reported use through 2017/18. For more information, read the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade and the Economic Research Service’s Oil Crops Outlook February reports." 

https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/oilseeds.pdf

"Big reason why China isn’t quite as desperate to the US as previously thought."

???  Where is THAT statement coming from ???  South American Stocks were Lowered.. both Beginning 59.86 TO 56.71 down 3.15 mmt's and Ending 62.92 to 54.02 down 8.9 mmt's!!

The WASDE lowered Brazil to 117.. but some are STILL 10 mmt's below that number...  number this morning I heard was 107 to 108..???

Is the US going to export Soybeans to Brazil next fall..??  Like we are to Argentina now?

... A Year Ago the WASDE lowered Argy Soy Production from 56 to 54... it's now at 37.8.. 

"just say'in."

There's STILL a 20 mmt hole in Exports that CHINA did not TAKE from the US...

Who filled that? 
by how much?

Again from D Newsom..

 ( http://www.iptv.org/mtom/story/32808/market-analysis-darin-newsom   )

" Delany Howell: Okay, I want to talk about beans because you had an interesting thought in your newsletter this week. You said,you don't think we're going to hit 1 billion bushels of soybeans in carryover. Why do you see that happening or not happening I should say?

 

 

Newsom: Well, because I hate to speak ill of the dead, but the USDA is crazy. They never know what we have. Their last estimate was 955 million bushels of ending stocks. And let's say that's the high. Well the last 10 years USDA has averaged overestimating ending stocks by the time we get to the September quarterly stocks number by 41% and that's just an average. So if we take 41% off of 955 we're down in the 560, 570 million bushel range. 

When you play the Shell game.. you can only hide the ball for so long..

I'm not picking on USDA.. nor WASDE so much as I am questioning the Trade's BLIND FAITH.. in "estimates" printed in REAL TIME.. while Conditions CONTINUE to change...

is my point.. 

(of course there is the "market Manipulation" thread above.. if you wanna go there..)



Edited by JonSCKs 2/8/2019 13:09
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