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| Quote: We're seeing load outs in Brazil pick up exponentially,” said Smithmier. “In fact, in January they loaded out over 2 million tons, and in February so far - even for the first couple days - their load-out rate is better than last year and the year prior. While we’ve seen China say they're going to buy 5 million tons, and then again last week arguably buy another 5 million tons, the fiscal load out rate that we're seeing - and the offload rate that we're seeing in China - doesn't match up with that at this point.
The simple fact is, by my reckoning China has supposedly bought 8.5 MMT from us in the past two months but has only loaded out 1.24 MMT since starting in Jan. At the same time they've loaded 2 MMT out of Brazil in Jan. alone, a full month before Brazil's export season even gets started for real. And every day more ships arrive off the coast of Brazil to wait for soybeans.
The past three weeks the Chinese have loaded out an average of 390,000 MMT from US ports. At this rate the first 8.5 MMT will take 22 weeks to load out.
The Chinese are dangling a carrot in front of trump and if he doesn't go along and sign the deal they want, they cancel the few loads they've "promised" to buy.
The simple fact is, everything depends on trump & Xi reaching a deal. If they don't we'll never move the 51.7 MMT that the WASDE predicts we will this year, it will be more like 40-45 MMT.-
If that's the case, you can add another 250-500 million bushel to that 955 million bushel carryout.
In as little as four weeks time, that $9.60 for Nov. 19 beans could be just some far away dream. | |
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Nov seasonal from below
