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US Soybean Carryout.. a path to 651 myn bushels.
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JonSCKs
Posted 2/4/2019 08:59 (#7295977 - in reply to #7295956)
Subject: oh.. and I cut the US Crop and Carry in..


2130 from 1900 only adds 230 to demand how did I go from 955 to 652?

955-652 = 303 - 230 =73 unexplained..

I cut stocks a smidge.. cut Production 56 myn bushels.. 0.63 bu per acre on Yield.. and bumped domestic crush.. 15.4 million bushels.. thus.. 73 - 56 crop - 15.4 - 1.6 beginning stocks = 0 or explained.

If I edit my post above.. my table (which transferred better than I expected) will get messed up.

This all in my opinion are reasonable expectations going into Friday's Reports..

THE WASDE WILL NOT go THIS FAR.. 

example a year ago they had ARGY at 56 then 54 then.. 4 or 5 more UPDATES before they got it down to the 37.8 number they are using now.

SO this will NOT happen overnight.. but.. if BRAZIL truly is only at 112.. the ONLY OTHER PLACE which has STOCKS.. that are not COMMITTED...

... is the US.



Edited by JonSCKs 2/5/2019 07:31
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