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One more push higher in the beans!
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Conan the Farmer
Posted 1/7/2019 22:06 (#7228497 - in reply to #7228389)
Subject: Charts and Weather

South Central Iowa

Thanks for the thoughts on weather all! Enjoyed reading it. I wanted to repost/bump this post by user Pilgrim. Brazil is dry and it is a big deal when they don't get copious amounts of rain. Their soil, by-in-large, doesn't hold water like most of ours.

Contract charts for new crop corn and soy. Comments in charts. Other than that, I'm not overly optimistic. I really don't believe we have a great opportunity at marketing for soybeans this year. I think we have a shot at that $9.93 area. I booked 10% of beans already at $9.03 cash and probably will move up to 25% or so in that $9.93 zone, but that only equates to a $9.08-$9.25 price depending on location and delivery period in fall/winter around here. It just isn't attractive enough to do more than that. But I do think that rising wedge will prove out its bearish form. I could see us drifting into the low $9.10-$9.20 area from April to June. Maybe the Brazil drought will do something. Otherwise it's up to our weather to make ZSX break $10.

Corn is better. It looks like the last 4 years, so half a decade of the same thing. That's pretty much what its suppose to be I guess. Currently 10% sold on cash corn for new crop, will be 50% sold if we test the summer high of last year, and will cover the other 50% in puts like I didn't do last year. I'll make good money there if there isn't a drought or something local.

Charts and Pilgrim's drought picture:

Edited by Conan the Farmer 1/7/2019 22:07

(zsx19 Jan 7 (full).png)

(zcz19 Jan 7 (full).png)

(weather(full) (full).jpg)

Attachments zsx19 Jan 7 (full).png (65KB - 32 downloads)
Attachments zcz19 Jan 7 (full).png (66KB - 35 downloads)
Attachments weather(full) (full).jpg (97KB - 39 downloads)
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