| This has been an interesting battle on my stock quote page..
I have Carl Icahn's Coffeville Resources (CVRR) just below Green Plains Renewable Energy (GPRE)
Coffeville was a struggling "interior" refinery until the Bakken turned the refining world upside down..
It had a low of $6 during the summer of 2016.. between Icahn buying it and Trump's victory later that fall.. It peaked out this summer at $24.. and has fallen back to $15. It has access to Crude Oil below the World Market as it is sited on the Keystone Pipeline.. plus whatever the interior ships it's way..
Green Plains was a flash in the pan during the ethanol boom.. It IPO'd at 27 and zoomed to $49.99 during the summer of 2006.. then fell to $1.37 during the depths of the Great Recession in the Spring of 2009.
Good Margins lead to a recovery all the way back to $44.74 in the Fall of 2014.. It fell to $13.87 during the spring of 2016 and recovered to $25 and change by the Election of Trump.. the Waivers have beat it down to $16 to $17.. GPRE has diversified into Cattle Feeding.. in a big way.. and has built a pipeline to ship DDGS to it's feedlots here in the South West.. We now see alot of trailers from out of state when I deliver corn to the feedlots. Furthermore, GPRE has built an ethanol export terminal on the gulf and as I noted below.. ethanol exports are quietly doing well.. with talk of increased movement into Mexico.
The Trump administration has been more friendly to Petroleum stocks vs renewables.. but depending upon how future elections go.. even if Trump stays in power past 2020.. I can see the headwinds growing for Fossil Fuels politically.
Our Local Ethanol plant just got it's certification to ship ethanol into the Low Carbon Fuels Market in California.. and another plant is coming online next spring to do the same, As the Democrat's increase power.. they have the house now.. with sites on the Senate and the Presidency.. I suspect we'll be talking alot more about LCFS.
I guess we're going to get a Renewable Natural Gas Biodigester.. to convert waste CRP grass and Stover to RNG for the California market.. With Natty Gas spiking.. I suspect this will be the rage now..
( https://blog.aee.net/renewable-natural-gas-a-fuel-of-the-future ) Biogas for commercial use is a product of anaerobic digestion, a method in which microorganisms break down organic matter in an oxygen-starved environment, and one of the oldest processing technologies. It is captured in modern land fills (land fill gas, or “LFG”) and biodigesters, which treat a range of organic waste streams. While biogas is a combination of gases and other volatile impurities, its main component (50% to 70%) is methane (CH4), the same as natural gas. As such, biogas can be combusted to produce electricity and heat. It can also be upgraded to pure biomethane or renewable natural gas (RNG) through the process of removing the impurities and other gases, making it suitable for transport by pipeline or compressed to fuel CNG vehicles. Biogas power generation is widely utilized for on-site generation by industrial-scale facilities and distributed customers alike. Offering reliable baseload power to the grid, biogas enjoys favorable regulatory support in many national markets and is expected to play a signi cant role in meeting expanding renewable energy targets. The four main feedstock sources within the global biogas market are food waste, industrial, agricultural, and sewage. Biogas feedstocks are available worldwide. However, logistical challenges associated with its collection, aggregation, transportation, and handling, coupled with poor energy density relative to fossil fuels, make power and fuel generation from biogas viable only where organic matter is available in large quantities and in continuous supply. Overall, Biogas fuel production revenue and capital expenditures on processing equipment together was $86 million worldwide in 2015, up 67% from the year before and 83% over 2011. In the United States, Biogas revenue was down 6% from the recent peak of $19 million in 2015, but still up 44% from 2011, when it was $12 million. But year-to-year variation is mostly due to the ebb and flow of capital investment in biogas facilities. Revenue from Biogas fuel production has risen steadily over the 2011-15 period, from $27 million to $57 million globally, and from $8 million to $13 million domestically. In the United States, there are numerous companies that have formed in the last decade as biogas technologies have manifested. For example, Harvest Power operates an anaerobic digester in Orlando, Florida, in which food waste sourced primarily from the Walt Disney World Resort is used to produce enough electricity to meet the needs of 16,000 homes. 2G Energy Inc. is another U.S.-based company, which utilizes biogas for CHP plants. The company has over 40 biogas plants across North America ranging in capacity from less than 100 kW to over 2.8 MW. The Florida-based company utilizes LFG and sewage sludge from wastewater treatments as the primary sources of organic material for its CHP plants. Bluesphere, based in North Carolina, is currently building a 5.2 MW biogas plant in Charlotte, which is scheduled to be completed in 2016. The company is also building a biogas plant in Rhode Island, as well as multiple plants in Italy. Driven by strong waste management and renewables integration policies, Europe is expected to hold its position as the leading region worldwide for the next decade, with Germany as the epicenter of global biogas production. The European biogas market is currently led by on-farm digesters, with Germany accounting for 52% of total biogas production capacity, most of which is used for electricity production. In 2014, the country had 3,840 MW of installed capacity, the most biogas electricity generation capacity in the world. In the United States, policies to enforce the composting and recycling of organic material are beginning to gain traction, which could spur more biogas development. Massachusetts is the rst state to enact a food-waste disposal ban, which requires any entity that disposes of more than one ton of organic material per week to donate or re-purpose the material instead of sending it to a land ll. The material is to be used for a variety of applications including sending it to anaerobic digestion facilities to convert it to renewable natural gas. Should other states follow suit, biogas could be in a position to gain a substantial foothold in the renewable energy market. Crude Oil has hit the brick wall on exports to China which also plagues Soybeans.. Given that Fracking is EXPENSIVE I suspect that Fossil fuels will face headwinds both on Costs, Regulations (the Keystone pipeline construction was blocked again by a Judge in Montana) and political.. the Democrats from California will not support it.
I like GPRE going forward and altough I'm out of the Market.. I would consider buying back in... I've owned a pipeline Stock before.. EPD.. but I don't see the future income stream like I once did.. I doubt I'll ever invest in fossil fuels going forward,,
but that's just me..
If Trump losses in 2020.. there will be a shake out coming in the Fossil Fuels Sector..
JMHO |
Crude oil?
