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Crop Progress.. Ks about 1 million acres short on HRW
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JonSCKs
Posted 11/12/2018 07:42 (#7100725)
Subject: Crop Progress.. Ks about 1 million acres short on HRW


Last week Kansas was 63% done with Soybean Harvest.. some of which was supposed to get turned around to HRW Wheat at 83% done.. up 7% for the week.

We were able to run till Wednesday night.. then it rained/snowed.. which... it did again last night.

We have until Thursday to get any more acres in.. then it's NO Coverage on Insurance.  We got within 2 quarters of being done.  I have until certification to decide whether or not to turn that acreage in as prevented plantings..  ??  I got closer than it looked like I would about 10 days ago.. I may just skip the PP and the hit on my yields..

For me it will reduce our intended double cropped acres.. These were irrigated fields which I did not get in.. So the practical effect from my farm is that they will be full season not double cropped.

To my east it would be dryland acres not double cropped.. the I-35 corridor had a 2nd bad year with dryland corn with yields down.. and alot chopped.. insurance claim.

We thought that those acres would go to wheat..  Since they probably did not finish getting the soybeans off.. they are now probably committed to a fall crop in 2019..

Corn.. (lets go for 3 failures in a row?)  Soybeans.. (odds of a deal?)  Sorghum.. ??  Cotton as someone else pointed out cotton acreage is growing but.. it may be too far north.. and lack of infrastructure.. pickers + ginning capacity.

Here.. maybe 20% of the cotton is out.. but the weather is suppose (??) to open up..  ??  Yields have been good.. Quality...???

We do not have near the ground piles as normal.. and some country elevators ARE NOT getting the bushels to fill expanded storage.. pretty good pushes for basis right now.

In fact a shuttle loader is still higher on Soybeans than the Processor.. as I noted below.  Export demand..??  Processor bid just too wide..??

We do have a new Ethanol plant at Colwich firing up next spring.. so that will push the basis even more.. so probably less wheat acres are not a bad thing.

Other than only 49% of sorghum was harvested as of last week.. and the yields are down from last year.. with some falling over.. given the tightness of the economy.. guys can put sorghum in on the cheap.. and the ethanol plants can use it..  I would think Sorghum acres will grow for next year.. ???

China is not importing.. about 200 million bushels of sorghum.. but that's only.. 4..5..6..??  ethanol plants switching over.. and so that will still disappear.. in fact given it's cheaper to buy.. and it qualifies as an advanced fuel.. probably preferred by the ethanol plants..  So we'll see...

Schools have a late start this morning.. on the snow..





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