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South Central Iowa | Harvest is always the worst basis anyway, so it should start improving after the easy bushels have been had. Problem, at least for soybeans, is then those easy bushels along with forward contracts have to be used before pressure can tighten. With usage, that might take some time. I don't know if soy basis improves much until Dec or Jan. Then it might only be improvement from awful to bad.
I think the futures stand a better chance though and the poor basis helps their rally. There are a lot of people who, right or wrong, remember 2016 and selling sub $8.00 cash beans in the winter to see it rise above $11 cash. The hedge pressure under the mid-$9's will be light after harvest, IMO. It's whether we can spark long interest. | |
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Bean basis after nov 6th?
