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Ontario's middle east | That is one of my old friend Roy Smith's “always” strategies. Of course there are no always in marketing....I even have some lumps to prove it. There are however, some things that happen often enough that over time, following them will make you money. Here are calendar year charts for last 5 years of dec corn in our grading room. I drew the orange lines to frame Apr 1 to Jul 10. It seems just about every year the market gets excited in this time frame. Too wet, too cold, too dry, too hot, plague, pestilence, Yada, yada, yada.... whatever, point is, it usually much ado about nothing. Seldom seems like it at the time, especially if you are in the bullseye of what is going on. At the end of the day though a lot more often than not we grow a crop and that early risk premium gets extracted by July 10 as the unknowns become known. I'm not so much in the "always May 1" camp as much as a "get profit based targets working during that time before you go to the field in case the cookie plate goes around when you are busy sorta dude". If the targets don't hit, and you have nothing done by July1, you better re-evaluate. Just thought it was interesting perspective.
Edit: 2013 - 2017
Edited by Maizeing 4/17/2018 09:33
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Always Forward Contract Corn May 1
