|
| Be aware of head fake lower in corn. The E.U. weather model is showing a dryer period from 5/2 -5/7. This could create a head fake lower on Monday and could go retest recent lows. Be careful here. We are along way from corn hitting the bottom of the grain cart and to put it bluntly 90.4 million acres are just to skinny. If we have PP acres of 3 million (move from 90.4 to 87.4 million acres) using the Projected usage of 14.4 million bu. (debatable) and a trend line yield of 171 bu. per acre (which might be hard to come by) carryout gets reduce to 1.7 billion bu. I believe this will put a 4 in front of corn. I realize that these numbers are assumptions but they are well with the realm of possibility. The recovery in corn prices may not come due to a delayed planting scenario but one cannot argue that it would not take much to get prices higher. | |
|
THINKING OUTLOUD ON CORN NUMBERS
