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| Oil demand from India and China is based on their high pace of development which is fueled by me and you buying lots of tv sets and calling for tech support (sure your name is Billy). As we (US, et al) slow down we quickly go back to using our remaining dollars to buy necessities (fuel, electricity, rent) instead of the elective purchases. So.... it's possible the Lehman guys don't see demand from India and China as a sure thing yet and highly dependent on other countries success. Heck, China could roll back into the dark ages at any point depending on the leadership (not that it's likely, but their past performances don't give you warm fuzzys about the future).
However, in time these countries will develop to the point where most developed countries are with internal demand supporting their economy as much or more than exports. As long as they are largely based on export they are vulnerable. Japan is a good example of this - they still export a lot, but it's the high end products and their own market for goods and services is very strong.
What do you think?
Pat
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Do you think Lehman Bros are right?
