I couldn't get ahold of my broker guy this morning or I'd have been filled.. I tried but busy.

I think Chip on Market Rally this afternoon summed it up pretty well..  "Rally on Monday.. fight to defend it the rest of the week."  I'm not sure I want to chase a $.30 move.. but let it settle back down.. I don't know why.. I just feel we got a $9.50 to $11.50'ish move.. We're sitting tonight around $10..  Worse thing to happen would be for it to rally a little more and convince farmers to sell a little.. push it under $10 and the doors weld shut..imho.  Then we can coil for an explosive move...  or.. something like that..??

I'm sure that I'm wrong but here are my biases..  First off this year If we did raise THAT big of a crop.. and no doubt in Illinois and Eastern Cornbelt..(assuming they can get it out..) probably did.. but that will have removed ALOT of fertility that will need to be replaced next year..  Out here.. I'm hearing 160 bu pivots all the way up to 270..  Mostly.. 195 to 240.. so that's pretty good.. probably a little bit better than last year.. but.. not that much.. My test plot last year did like.. 228.. This year 255.. yet whole fields are gonna be about 5 to 10 or thereabout's better..?  Waiting to get measured up to know for sure.

That being said.. I got 4.. well now 5 empty bins.. emptied another seed wheat bin.. and that's pretty common.. "so you full?"  "nope.. getting close but probably will not fill.."  And no one seems to be in a hurry.. prices pretty much suck.. might as well knock off and go to the ball game.. it will be there tomorrow.. and if not.. who cares?  That pretty well sums up the attitudes.. "eh.. whatever.."

I honestly believe we could go to $5 corn.. $13 beans.. and..?? $8.00 wheat.. we probably won't but offer me.. $4 corn.. $10.50 beans.. or $7.00 wheat.. and.. "no thanks."  It's still burned in my memory selling $4 corn a few years ago.. and BUYING OUT OF THAT at $6.50.. that hurt.

So.. yal.. 14..15..16 byn bu corn crop.. probably headed to $2.50 or whatever.. want to lock any of that in?  "no thanks."  If it goes to $2.50.. I got the rest of the year to haul that in.. "no hurry.." 

Basically the bears can cry wolf so many times.. at this point.. "don't care."  "Yal I know.. 15 byn bu crop.. yada yada yada.. should have sold earlier.. blah blah blah...  Boy do I need a vacation.. ANYBODY feel like firing up trucks to go bust their behinds to haul.. $3.00 corn.. "yawn... nope."   Could be $2.50 next spring.. "okay.. fine by me.. later."

I know I should be more scared.. just not.. The drought of the Century.. couple flipped pivots.. Sky high expenses.. seen it done it got the T shirt.  Just another day... So I'm ready for a lower rest of the week.. Guess I'll have to wait until next week now.