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| On agday to day Bill B. (Allendale) pointed out (http://www.agweb.com/agday/ 5/19/14 edition) that supplies are plenty high and historically prices reacted to that reality. Today prices do whatever funds/specs/obama/the boogyman/whoever wants them to do.
Some things to consider:
1. Price could be high or could be low - fundamentals may rule an hour or as much as a day of trading, but the things that move the market are not in our collective backyards
2. US has a crappy economy. The only places going pretty well are either state funded or are the last plant left after 6 others close. We don't graduate enough people with real degrees that can be used in industry to build an economy. The current rulers don't want a good economy or medical (or otherwise) marijuana has given them all a demented idea about creating an environment where a good economy could exist (government doesn't create anything including a good economy). Bottom line is that a bad economy doesn't need lots and lots of grain.
3. High prices have made all end users more efficient and much more aware of feed alternatives and business alternatives which include exit from the business (ie. cattle)
4. Just because grain production has been largely left alone by regulators doesn't mean it will always be that way. Already the EPA is coming to 'help' us with our temporary puddles and more intrusion is definitely the trend - I'm guessing the least effect it will have is higher costs.
5. None of this could matter, just pick the latest bull poster (or maybe even bear - definitely not NAT approved though) at random write your marketing plan around their ramblings and you are likely to do as well as anyone. | |
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New title to remember.........peak demand
