That's a good link Mark.. peaked my interest so I called my NOAA contact who has poo pooed the El Nino talk all along.. "models can be biased.. yal but yal but.. doesn't mean it will happen.. etc..."

"Hey so are you coming around?"


"... yal.. yal I'm coming around."


"Here's this site by Jeff Masters.."


"Yal he's good.. let me look that up.. oh.. wow.. yal that it is good news.. THAT warm eh?  Well.. THAT's a GOOD SIGN.. but still a couple months off.. maybe a year from now.. you'll start seeing the effects.."


"Not much on the near term horizon?"


"well unfortunately... uhum.. well.. no... not seeing anything to significant.. we've had a winter.. THAT's been pretty consistent.."


"Boy Howdie.."


"and so things are cool so might be a slower warm up then again we're getting this bump this week.. as far as moisture.. well you tell me have you got anything?"


"hmmm.. couple of drops.. wet the sidewalk.. Hill City got like.. 0.22" or thereabouts.. but that's about it.."


"ugh.. well.. see that's the problem.. there's still nothing to work with.. the fronts come through but it's too dry to kick anything off.. and El Nino.. in a couple months IF it HOLD's TOGETHER.. could HELP change that.. but unfortunately the pattern that you are IN is more La Nina Like then El Nino... and.. cool.. but unfortunately.. dry."


"So maybe later this summer..  an El Nino could be cooler for us..."


"Yes.. it COULD.. although we need moisture to cool things down.. without it.. heat can build.. and THAT's why Missing your Spring wet period.. which you still have some time.. but your NOT going to see an El Nino Before... say maybe June.. and by then.. your jet will have probably moved north.. so.. unfortunately.. probably too late.. for this go around.. maybe some summer showers...???"  (I'm paraphrasing.. not word for word but the general gist of what he was saying.. I think... ??)


Basically he nailed it.. said we could see improvement but the cycle moves TOO slow to get much relief in here in time to save the HRW Wht.. BINGO.. we're holding on.. but golly it's dry... real dry here... Just like he said..

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=447633&posts=9#M3624444

later..