Formerly NE North Dakota, now NW MN | Well, I'm just going to throw up my thoughts all over the screen and hopefully some of it makes sense.
First I should clarify, I'm not really "unhedged" new-crop soybeans. Back in Jan. or Dec. or sometime I don't remember when i started a thread something to the effect of "this is a good place to start on new crop soys". Think the number I threw that day was 11.70ish. The previous day I signed an HTA I think in the 11.60ish area. That's 1/5 of my expected production (probably with soybeans and weather here is that could be 3/4 of my crop of 1/8th. We realistically don't even know the acres we'll get planted to soybeans until we're parking the airseeder/planter/floater/airplane/ whatever we happen to plant them with). I also have OTM puts underneath quite a bit of the rest. That position has been, mostly, on since around the time of the HTA. Originally it had some calls sold against it, and they did very well on the way down. I didn't buy em back when I should of (note to self: if you're calling a market oversold....consider buying back calls). When X started taking out resistance lines, I finally bought them back. I even lifted half of the puts for a short time last week, but in truth, my confidence faded pretty quickly so I put them back on.
I am still bullish new crop soybeans. I caught a tweet the other day that said a Chinese co. had brokered the sale of two boats worth of soybeans from Brazil to eastern U.S. I just don't really understand how N.A. is going to grapple with having a negative soybeans carryout. I also think Conab will lower their crop size one more time, and I wouldn't be surprised if it goes down another 1 to 2 MMT. It's really hard to get a handle of the timing of events down there, but it sort of seemed to me that a bunch of that rust news was hitting after Conab would have gathered the info for the last report. I also have concerns about N.A. weather. If we do get El Nino.... it sort of seems right now that it will probably arrive late enough, it won't do much good and might actually just make more problems in the short term. That is, however, WILD speculation on my part, but it's keepin me a little more bulled up, thinking we'll have a less than ideal year in N.A.
Wheat- I continue to have no idea whats going, other than the winter wheat must be in the hurtbag. I have a few puts underneath them too, but by now they are way OTM. I'm just happy for the rally. Don't need to understand it's fundamentals. Need to figure out where I want to start laying down some HTAs (new crop, I already screwed up my old crop lol.)
I can't really post this morning without at least mentioning the Bison. Last night was our first ever NCAA tourny win. Pretty exciting stuff.
I hope this makes some sort of sense. My brains not really all there this morn. Friggin 40mph winds with ice covering stuff is kinda killing the mood this morning. |
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