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Ontario's middle east | I would agree with your assessment that basis is decent for new crop. I don't see it getting much better in US dollar terms, maybe in $ca if the dollar gets whacked. I put that scenario in the "only if the stock market gets whacked " category. I would not underestimate the threat that the Ingredion closure is to corn basis in ON. That's about a 20 mil bu market, whether you sell direct there or not is irrelevant. The resellers are going to get more uncomfortable being long the basis corn at traditionally big numbers if it starts to look like the usage is gonna get that much smaller. I guess that's the long way of saying think hard about at least selling the basis, unless youre sure the dollar will get killed.
As far as futures go, you got the wrong guy. There's a reason I'm a basis trader, not a futures trader. I did say a while back that we would get a chance to sell $ 5 Z ......4.93 was close but we were saying put orders at 4.99, so we missed by 6. Oh well, patience at this time of year is usually rewarded. I suspect youre right that the corn market will hold together in May to make sure we get lots of corn planted. A correction here wouldn't surprise me either but I don't see new lows this side of July, then it's a weather deal. FWIW. | |
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Ontario corn market advice- Maizeing and others
