East Central South Dakota | Ukraine is third largest exporter of corn in the world behind Brazil and USA. Ukraine exported 730 million bushels of corn last year. If we pick up half that (365 million) and with Brazil and Argentina corn forcasts lower---we pick up another 150 million from down south that is 515 million. We have projected carry out of 1,481 milllion bushels minus the 515 pickup in sales = 966 million carryout (under psychology of 1 billion) and gets the carryout/use ration tight enough it would put dynamite in your scenario--- for a much more volitile launch.
My numbers are ambitious and i agree your scenario is more probable, but we are in a surplus corn market with the inelastic demand comfortably covered. Exports are the key to get that carryout/use ratio small enough market can't be comfortable with it and is forced to go out and buy corn acres. The "oh shheet" moment in beans is led by exports. The only way to get rid of excess corn is to sell it on boats.
What happens if export buying binge in corn starts after we have put the corn planters away ? |
Issuers are Now Stoppers
