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NW Ohio | Hopefully, someone way smarter than me can shed some light on the soybean market. The current conditions probably have every market advisor on their ears. None of them predicted what is currently happening.
Just some highlights......
1. China continues to source beans.....whether they be SA or US beans......appears they can get them either place with no penalty.
2. It seems that SA is again having delays in shipping.
3. According to the export sales and the US stock numbers, the US has oversold our supply.
4. Market guys continue to preach that China will cancel orders.
5. The soybean prices continue to move higher.....which would seemingly make one think that China will not cancel soybeans which they have purchased weeks ago at a much lower price. Also, just how many folks have any beans left to sell?
6. Why would China cancel lower priced soybeans? Unless of course, the prices in Brazil are much, much cheaper.
7. But China needs a contiuous flow of beans and they can't get them timely from Brazil.
8. USDA will never go below their pre-determined number for carryover stocks........even if the pipeline is almost empty.
9. Many now realize that (maybe too late) that our soybean supply needs rationed.
10. But........many end users still need our beans.
11. New crop bean prices seem late to the party....We need many more bean acres than what anyone can imagine
12. USDA......trying to keep a lid on things......already predicts record soybean acres AND without knowing ANY weather for the growing season, predicts record soybean yields.
13. USDA still says we have an ample supply of old beans.........where are they?
There is more to this story, but as you can see, this thing is a moving target. And, some of the answers will be revealed as we travel down the road.
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The Soybean Situation
