I stated that the basis action tells me that is what is happening. If it tells you something else than go for it do what you think is the right thing.

If you watch.. you will see basis BIDS change.. some times they dip at expected times.. such as strength in the board.  Other times they FIRM.. such as before an approaching storm.. and so forth.  My point is JUST BECAUSE Someone LOWERS the basis DOES NOT MEAN they are BUYING what they NEED to... some times.. they have to raise it back... or even jack it.  (where's the selling?)

I tried to offer a real life example.. (sigh)  just because something is shown does not mean that is the final price.

Part of our gulf is that we are on opposite sides of the National average.. You (correctly) and Maize have to plan things out FAR ahead.. because basis moves are much slower and more predictable..  My basis is somewhat dependent upon how much you guys move.. can move.. and actually do move.  However, I watch demand more than that.. (what you guys do..)  Currently we have bids.. not too far away over $5.00.. I caught heck for saying I wanted $6.00.. (short of a weather scare..) probably not going to get it.. (but it is only February...???) 

However, I worked at it.. did some things that I don't normally do.. and waited.. and (didn't get all my way.. two way street) but got some rewards.. Now.. PRICING is a DIFFERENT thing.. I carried some basis contracts for almost 2 months.. UNPRICED!!  (Remember Maize and Ray J prodding me.. "so what are you going to do about those offers?")  Sounds like I better lock some up.. so I did on some.. (have to look waited after Thanksgiving..?? and then.. this is just something to play with.. still gonna WAIT!!)  then mostly waited until after the Dec 1st report.. Mid January (and still did not get my futures target..)  But I haven't pitched the towel TOTALLY either.

If that makes me a hindsight marketer...???  I still have a decent amount unpriced.. without the basis locked in.. but NOT as much as before.  It is obvious to me that we will need to import some bushels into the area.. as we have been hit pretty hard with the weather.. and (for whatever reasons) still not seeing "much" coming down from the North.. Nebraska is keeping it.. for now..  between the ethanol plants.. the feeders.. and the railroads it's got a home.. for now.

I do see a little weakness in that upper NE corner on KSU's basis maps.. does that expand..??  Flip side.. what happens when the rivers open.. and then the Lakes?  (Heard Superior was going to completely freeze shut today.. that's unusual..??) 

Things change in a changing world..  (including my plans.)

I'm learning just how HARD it is for you guys to see a pop.. wow!  If someone pushes the basis back on me.. "Okay.. NEXT..." and I haven't had to go very deep into my bull pen.. shoot I could go 2 or 3 times deeper.. and farther west..  (still not going to Hereford though..)  Also point of clarification some of the bids include some freight.. so there's some diesel burnt to get them.. (and I haven't been overly forthcoming about it but figured it was obvious..??  maybe not..??)  the other thing.. is I didn't anticipate being this much of a FOCUS on a PUBLIC internet site..  but haven't walked away either.

You and Maize Called it much better than I did.. "Congrats"  "All Hail" and all that... I may not have a lot of self esteem left.. but I'm clinging to what I got.. "Flat price trader in the Mother of all inverts..:"   (Okay.. probably not the BEST position I've ever been in.. but.. the cards I'm dealt.. dealing with it...)

edit add: I would of had to lock up CRAPPY basis OFFERs (or hedge it..) once we got the rains.. in LH July and August.. by then.. (hey might have a crop afterall..) the Invert was locked in.. (hmm.. not getting my weather rally..)  So.. that's why.

So.. since I stuck my neck out there.. I've TRIED to be consistent about it.. NOT PERFECT.. but didn't walk away either..  We've bumped heads.. but I understand your (correct.. "all hail" and all that..) position a little better.. hmm.. Wow.. IF the railroads (and the St Lawrence for Maize) gets going don't you guys EVER see a basis improvement..???  Man.. I'd kill myself if I had to market up there...  Yipper.. time to jump all over that -.80..???  Aaarrrgggghhhhh!!!!

fwiw.. TMI.. NO DOUBT.