My summaries..  NASS/WASDE corn acreage in 06 was 78.3.. previous 4 years were.. 79.1, 78.6, 80.9 and 81.8 so that period averaged 79.75.  So even though 06 was a down year response to the previous year's 2005's large LDP's of as much as $.50.. (Katrina screwed up NOLA.. we shipped 50 myn bushels of corn BACK UP the Mississippi.. and corn prices crashed.. is what I remember..??) 

It's still a pretty Stable base to start from.

Now we could go back in on the NASS state by state data and pull out WHERE that increase came from by state... (anybody game?  We just need the NASS breakdown by state found on the summary site.. http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1000 )

We already know that from 2006 we added 16.5 myn acres of corn.. of which 2.4 came from wheat.. no doubt pulling down the Avg yield..  4.4 myn came from upland cotton (in the south?) probably added to yield.. 1 myn from Oats.. (down) 4.2 from Hay (down).. and probably about 2.8'ish from CRP (down) plus other minor.. (??)

I suspect that our premise argument that the Corn Yield has Flattened would be confirmed.. The growth in Cotton would probably parallel the Quant aspect also..


In the Beanies.. we robbed from them first.. then replaced them also.. which let's look at the state by state on that one also..  I know we've had growth in the plains.. which would lower trend yields.. and probably CRP lands.. but was surprised (sorta) that 3 times the added acreage was in Double crop which can be very fickle.. and the fact that THAT has GROWN while Wheat acreage has DECLINED shows how INTENSIVELY prices have ENCOURAGED that practice...


.. and now that the price carrot is going away.. I assume a good chunk of those 3.8 myn D/C beanies will also.. will here NO DOUBT!!


Good job guys..  Maybe we should send Glauber and Co a copy of our findings..???


edit add:  Wow looking at the 2nd chart the big decline years in total acreage came from the fall in Wheat acreage around 4 myn acres plus 2 in D/C beanies.. accounting for most of the drop in acreage...  hmmm.   Wheat as a cover crop..??