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Boone Co. Iowa | I wonder if this lack of carry, bullishness, etc. is due to 1) cold weather, 2) lack of rail/barge transportation, 3) shortage of corn, or something else?
1) We know it has been colder than snot, and our local ethanol plant sends out gentle reminders, along with weather forecasts, etc. and saying "please deliver the bushels you contracted by the date that we contracted them, etc. etc."
2) We know that the price of railcars was expensive there for a while in the fall, not sure where they are now but that higher cost is, I think, causing local corn users to pony up, so to speak, to bid for their corn.
3) I expected "bigger crops get bigger" report in January, and that wasn't the case. Looked to me like we reduced places like Iowa, MN, and was it also IL?
Local co-op is holding around 300K bu. of corn, can store over 2 billion I think....What the farmers have left IDK, I'm holding less than half of my corn crop from 2013, around 45%, all unpriced.
I drove tractor home from shop yesterday, first time I noticed cracks in the gravel roads, ALL THE WAY ACROSS, left to right. Not sure if that is due to all the cold temps, or lack of moisture, or combination. Never noticed it until I was up in the cab. Huge cracks. I look at drought maps, and Iowa don't lookee so good.
From what I can piece together from AgTalk and other sources, I think I could call up and get 10 cents better than posted bid (I may be completely wrong about that).
I find it hard to believe that the market March to July corn spread can get to zero, but if it DOES.....It makes me wish I understood how "taking delivery" worked a little better. It seems like we are moving to one of those circumstances in which the physical has more value than the paper....and the CBOT would be a better, truer, market, if there was a better delivery mechanism.....Maybe that is just me, or maybe just my local situation. And maybe there will be the "farmers puking corn" scenario once they get back from Bahamas, etc. and the polar vortex has wound down a bit....
Today had robins, starlings, and cedar waxwings taking turns on our bird waterer in the backyard....spring must be close at hand??? | |
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March - July corn spread
