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| Thanks. I've followed Wolter's site for many years. At the beginning, he was pretty confident that this would be at least somewhat predictable, and he readily made predictions. For the recent years, however, he has given up. Interesting, isn't it, that climatologists feel they can predict a thirty year moving average of weather when no one can predict with any accuracy this ENSO - a small subset of the bigger problem. His charts on that presentation you linked to show the uncertainty even with respect to the individual models that they run. I wish climate scientists were that honest.
I always look at the Australian site. Again, it is of questionable worth most times, but the most recent daily data shows a leap into La Nina territory (for the SOI).
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernos...
Again, way too soon to draw any conclusions, but *if* this turns out to be a trend, it would be extremely significant for summer weather. Especially with the much higher drought risks we are looking at for the corn belt over the next 3-4 years. | |
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Drought Outlook, what we are being told..
