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Ridgway, IL | put the production estimate in context... 88.8 mmt, is a year of year production increase of about 7mmt or 260million bushels, and would probably be another record crop.
So yes, it would seem bullish that production is getting cut somewhat... but it would be like the usa trimming corn production estimates from 15.5billion bushels to 15.2 billion bushels... yes, it is a forecast for slightly less than expected production, but still a monster crop... and unlikely to spur anyone to put on additional ownership of flat price. Early yield estimates from south America are slowly confirming that a good crop is coming.
I also compare the situation to the most recent wasde report... corn carryout at 1.6 bil bushel from whatever it was before... yes, it is cut... but hard to paint a bullish picture about a carryout of that size. Of course these numbers can change, and so the market will change... but at the time, I feel like the risk in corn/soybeans is to the downside.
Edited by LKM 1/20/2014 11:04
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So which is it? Brazil production lowered and we know Argy is in rough shape
