In the end it all comes back to the same idea.......consistent and concurrent over-reporting of inventory over time would mean we would run out of corn in the middle of summer.......did that happen in 2013 when we had a great opportunity with small stocks??


Yes Ray.. "here" it pretty much did.  


This is a True story..  in 1996.. a neighbor.. cattle feeder.. had corn in Grain Bank at the elevator.. his bins went empty.. and new crop was not ready yet.. so he went to the elevator to pick up his corn... It wasn't there.


The Elevator had grain "on the books" including his bushels.. but the elevator was empty.. no corn.  That was the LAST TIME significant bushels came up from down south into this area.. and Kansas Corn was flowing NORTH INTO Nebraska..


So YES.. it happened in 1996 as this guy's inventory was reported to NASS as there.. even though it was not.


Now THIS YEAR.. was a year where we saw UNIT TRAINS of CORN railed into THIS AREA from South Texas.. Houston area..  (not going to do 1996 again...)  As I have reported.. the first 20% of our crop went west to feedlots about 120 miles to my west.. the broker said that other trucks were coming FROM DALLAS area.. at the time..  FROM DALLAS to SW Ks..!!!  Trucking corn...  I asked the broker..

"Ever done that before?"

"Nope"

"Is this year as tight as 1996?"

"Sure looks like it to me."

We passed.. about 9.. to 12 elevators on the way.. almost NONE of them were shipping grain as they NORMALLY would.. In the 3 weeks it took to do the job.. I NEVER ONCE saw a truck loading at those elevators...  for all practical purposes.. "looked empty to me."
 
Right now Ray.. the nearest feedlot to me has about as much High Moisture Corn in inventory as it would NORMALLY have in July... probably down about 800,000 bushels of corn.. give or take vs normal.

NASS just reported a Dec 1st stocks number of 10,426 vs an average trade guess of 10,770.. a miss of 344 myn bushels.


In order for the books to balance.. they had to print a record Q1 F&R..

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=446074&posts=31#M3608190

Feed and Residual is a backed in number..  It is what is left after everything else is determined.. it is not a measured number it is the result of other numbers..

Specifically for Q1 F&R = Production + Carry In + Imports - Exports - Food, Alcohol & Mill  - Stocks measured.

Therefore, 13,925 + 821 + 14 - 347 - 1,561 - 10,426 = 2,426

 IF you do not BELIEVE 2,426.. then one of the other numbers is wrong.  The two most obvious candidates are the Dec 1st stocks.. 10,426 which as I discussed below.. the trade thinks NASS undercounted On Farm stocks.. OR.. the production number.. 13,925 is Too HIGH.
          
also as you note..

Of course, this over-reporting could also be counter-balanced by under-reporting by another segment in the chain....  

yipper.. "could be." 


I believe that the Q1 F&R 2,426 is a miss.. or an over count... as do many of the bears.. NO WAY we are feeding THAT!!


Ray, Do YOU believe the  F&R of 2,426 in Q1??   about 400 myn bu above recent norms..?? 

If not.. which number is wrong that computes it? 

Dec 1st stocks 

OR the Production number of 13,925..???