I keep coming back to the 10,426 Dec 1st stocks


This year.. 13,925 crop + 821 carry in + ??  imports of ?? say 5 of the 30 made it before Dec 1st..?? = 14,751 - 10,426 stocks = 4,325 - 340'ish exports - 1,220'ish ethanol grind = 2,765 of OTHER disappearance..


Vs 2009 where..  (from a thread below..  http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=442040&posts=43#M3567494 )

In 2009 14,775 total supply - 10,902 Dec 1st = 3,873 usage for Q1 of which we know that exports were..447 and ethanol.. golly before EIA started reporting the weekly numbers.. gonna guess.. ?? 835'ish = 1,148 grind which would equal 4,592 for the year.. and we did 4,568.. "good enough."

Okay so.. 3,873 useage - 447 exports and 1,148 etoh grind = other of 2,278.

Now this year.. who knows what the Quant feeding/ Quant Exports etc.. are gonna do.. (got the popcorn gonna enjoy the show..) but starting with the 2,278 (just like Q1 09/10) + 340 of exports and 1,217 ethanol grind to date = 3,835

So.. 14,843 - 3,835 = 11,008 for USDA's numbers to add up...

11,008.


Okay again we got..  13,925 crop + 821 carry in + ??  imports of ?? 5 = 14,751 - 10,426 stocks = 4,325 - 340'ish exports - 1,220'ish ethanol grind = 2,765 of OTHER disappearance.. - 2,278 of Other in 09 is a DIFFERENCE of 487 myn bushels.


Anyone got the CGAU's.. I thought we were supposed to be DOWN this year..???  could be wrong..??


Okay.. well subtract 200 myn in Quant.. really exports.. since increased acreage this year in the Southland sits right above NOLA.. but sure everything.. Quant feeding.. Quant deer feeding.. the whole she-bang... still how do you miss 487 myn bushels.. 09 was a late start on harvest.. and an ubber good crop.. with a higher yield than this year.. no doubt... but still..

and the south was pretty good this year.. I did theorize that maybe up to 437 got harvested this year..BEFORE Sept 1st..  http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=429822&posts=3#M3441577  

But the South starts early EVERY YEAR including 09...???

Unless the Dec 1st stocks missed in On-Farm storage.. possible somewhat but golly.. EVEN I didn't go that low.. I was probably closer to Tara's guess of 10.65    

My first knee jerk reaction is at 13,925 the crop is STILL over-estimated...    ???


but I'm gonna caution.. that if USDA errored on the side of conservative in the on farm bins Dec 1st.. by July they may flip and err on the side of.. "prove it's NOT there.." 


Personally I think in the places that they had the Ubber good crops.. Nebraska irrigated (must have punched some more wells ??) and Eastern Cornbelt.. that it's there.. and those analyst.. it was easy to buy into the ubber 14+ crop..  For me out here in Non-El Nino land.. that raised even with MORE ACRES.. 80% of what we did in 09.. 

BS on a crop over 13.7...  "good but not THAT good.."

truth is in the middle...???    


ps.. and at 10,902 stocks in 09.. we still had some out in the field at that time.. was the real number even higher..???   or did they pad it in that 10.9 number..???