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Middle Tennessee | With all the tremendous stuff here, I know you guys don't need to hear from me tonight. But I have a need. I posted below to my blog this eve,
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The incredible farmer board where I spend all my hours has been bristling with information, insight, and entertainment, even more so than usual. Interest has been piqued by the major supply and demand USDA reports today. By the way, I'm very happy for guys whose position improved with the great day on corn, you guys had one coming.
What I should be doing right now is reading the nearly one thousand posts from the last 24 hours, or at least reading the government reports themselves. But I'm suffering some condition, I'm sure it could be diagnosed, causing numbness when I see words like hundreds of millions of bushels or millions of metric tons. So instead I am sinking my time into this lazy, dispirited note.
I picked a bottom in wheat a week or so ago. It was a false bottom, so I picked another false bottom this week. The pros say don't pick bottoms, but I like it. The short story is a 30-cent loss on each of two mini contracts this week. (Fortunately, a respectable fraction of that was made up on profits from sleazy maneuvering in the soybean spreads.)
Probably the worst time to pick a bottom is just before wheat makes it's lowest close on the chart, literally. Look at the weekly continuation chart below.
Wheat price is lower than at any moment since the unfortunate commencement of LKCW. I encourage you to go back and read every post hosted here at LKCW, and consider, that after all that, wheat is lower than it has ever been.
I did at least cast a random gaze at the WASDE, looking at global wheat numbers. I looked at ending stocks under the USDA's Major Importers and Major Exporters category. The numbers for the current marketing year were quite a bit more bullish, but the projected numbers for next year are almost identical to those in 2011-12 for these categories. For reference, here is a price chart for March wheat at this time in 2012.
 (TwoYear.jpg)
 (March12.jpg)
Attachments
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 TwoYear.jpg (57KB - 34 downloads)
March12.jpg (47KB - 28 downloads)
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Bottom Pickers
