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| DALIAN, China -- In late November, on the day China's defense ministry assertively claimed a swath of airspace over the East China Sea, a more dovish tone was being set in another part of Beijing.
Senior agricultural officials from the U.S., Brazil and Argentina -- three of China's biggest food suppliers -- had gathered in the capital to attend the China Food Security Strategy Summit, during which the Chinese side repeated its desire to build a strong, open relationship with major food-supplying nations "based on mutual trust."
"A decrease in arable land and water shortages due to consecutive droughts have been squeezing our ability to supply grain," said Han Jun, vice president of China's Development Research Center of the State Council, a government think tank.
China has set its food self-sufficiency target at 95%, but Han thinks that figure needs some tweaking. At the summit, he proposed dividing food into three categories and assigning a different target for each. He envisions a self-sufficiency target of 100% for core grains, like rice and wheat for human consumption; 90% for other grains, including corn, the main ingredient of animal feed; and 80% for overall foods, including soybeans and potatoes. In other words, he was saying a 95% target for all three categories is unrealistic.
Working up an appetite
Han shared data showing that migrant workers who move from rural areas to cities consume the most food. For example, a migrant worker with a job in construction consumes about 51kg more food per year than a typical office-working city dweller and about 119kg more food than a farmer. This is because migrant workers consume more meat, and the grain required to produce that meat is included in the consumption figures.
Chinese cities are forecast to see another 300 million such migrant workers over the next two decades, which will dramatically increase demand for food. Imports will be the only way to keep those people fed.
So while China may long to strengthen its control over the East China Sea, it cannot afford to alienate the U.S., which provides 98% its corn imports and 45% of its soybean imports. It is telling that when American B-52 bombers entered China's new no-fly zone on Nov. 26, Beijing did not scramble any fighter jets to confront them.
The same day, China's first (and only) air craft carrier -- the Liaoning -- set sail toward the South China Sea, escorted by two missile destroyers and two missile frigates. But further south of that sea is Australia, a country that supplies 66% of China's imported wheat.
Recipe for turmoil
Skyrocketing global wheat prices were a major trigger for the Arab Spring social uprisings that swept through the Arab world in 2011. Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, struggled to obtain enough wheat for bread. Hungry young men took to the streets, and a 30-year-long dictatorship was toppled in a matter of weeks.
"The world's top nine wheat importers are in the Middle East and seven had political protests resulting in civilian deaths in 2011," wrote Troy Sternberg, a geographer at Oxford University.
China may be trying to call the shots in the East China Sea, but President Xi Jinping has to reconcile this with the reality that his country is no longer self-sufficient when it comes to food. The bottom line is that the country cannot afford to damage its relationships with the nations that help feed it.
Edited by Gottlieb 1/6/2014 09:55
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waste not want not (China)
