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last Saltie (Orsula) for year heading to Italy (vid)
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Luke Skywalker
Posted 12/22/2013 13:01 (#3538534 - in reply to #3536981)
Subject: RE: last Saltie (Orsula) for year heading to Italy (vid)


Arva, Ontario

Yes and no...

You're a basis trader. Ya can't make water run uphill...  The biggest demand with the big wads of cash are best serviced off the left coast. Can't load 50K tonners off the east coast to service that market and be in the hunt. They will have to concentrate on the specialty markets in Europe, Black Sea and S. America.

I think the CWB bought what they could afford (and what could be bought). East coast assets are more economical than the left coast at the moment. If you have been to the Lakehead in the last 10 years, its a bit of ghost town where the terminals are. A main reason for this is that loading unit and half-units at the mainline terminals, once that puppy is moving, there are good rates all the way to Montreal/Quebec City. Also the main reason for P&H's Shantz Station terminal between Kitchener and Guelph. A lot of milling wheat comes to that facility when they own Goderich, Owen Sound and Pt Colbourne... Saves an in-and-out at the Lakehead plus boat freight which includes lockage, pilots etc. On the other hand, the Lower St Lawrence terminals are transfer terminals, and were built for boat traffic. They will handle so much rail before they jack the fees to dump cars and force it back into a ship...

I also suspect that there is a staff at the CWB that is 'waiting for it to come to them' - because it always did..  If you're going to wait for grain to come to you, it will be because of basis, service, or the die-hards that are hoping that 'the quota call' will come and they can take a few loads in the 3 Ton down to the wooden elevator which is going to magically open back up. They have a big hill to climb, and I guess they decided it wasnt going to be as a straight broker, so they bought some assets. Think of it as the 60 yr old dairy farmer that has decided to get into trucking with a 16 yr old highway tractor and a 4-axle dumper. Been used to working hard, but not really having to think too hard. Now he's in a pretty cut-throat business with equipment that is not the most productive, and not used to the "empty miles kill" type of mindset. I'd give it the slim side of a 50:50 chance of succeeding a decade from now. My opinion.

Ken

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