| We get an update later today.. but as I posted below with Last Wednesday's numbers..
Your graphs are MUCH better than EIA's.. but to look at it someone needs to run the Refiner and Blender net input Minus Production minus the Stock build (change) which I ASSUME would give us a proxy for exports..?? Sat points out that not much left in Sept.. but we were not Grinding much over domestic useage in September.. that has since changed as the last week.. we made 913 used 837 and only added to inventory (15,124 - 15,022 = 102 / 7 = ) 14.57 which means 913 - 837 - 14.57 = 61.43 bpd or 430 k bbls / week went somewhere... Where did it go? Is it lost in transport?
However, it's not just this week.. Production has been exceeding demand since the later part of September.. (leaky railcars..? lol) and yet inventories have declined... So that does not seem plausible.. ???
For all of Sept.. 848.25 of prod - 843.5 of useage 4.75 b/d and yet stocks fell 760 k bbls.. 27.14 b/d or 22.39 b/d went somewhere.. For Nov that became.. 914.6 - 852 = 62.6 b/d coupled with a stocks draw of 41 or 1.17 b/d = 63.77 b/d disappearance.. an increase over September.. as product became cheaper and more plentiful.. so.. that would make sense.
Note that during the week of 9/13 and 9/20 useage exceeded production.. and matched it at 868 on 10/4.. since then Production has exceeded domestic useage.. by 90 b/d during the week of 11/22 and 76 b/d last week.. and we are just now starting to see a build in inventories..
A final point.. we need to rebuild stocks going into the summer driving season.. as 1234's stocks graph shows.. we'll draw about.. 4,000 k bbls of ethanol out of storage during the summer driving season.. and right now we are sitting on the lowest ever since EIA started tracking this in 09..
Repeated below from before.. http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=434975&posts=8#M3497102
Edit add: USDA in the WASDE raised the grind for corn to 4,950 which would equal an average grind of "about" 897.. something that we have been above for the past 6 weeks.. As I note below.. to crop year date we are at 885.46 13 weeks into the year.. thus we need to average.. 901.72'ish going forward.. we'll get this weeks numbers in a few.. but golly this is the off season.. so even if start to come up short.. we got the spring and summer to kick it in gear.. The plants are struggling to accumulate inventories of corn.. (aka the northern cornbelt didn't have much till October'ish.. aka the slow grind in Sept..) things do not start humming until the starch hardens.. something that EI has talked about.. better grinds a couple weeks post harvest.. and we are also fighting cold temps.. which can also hamper operations.. so.. BATTLING OUR WAY THROUGH IT!! Yal baby... LET's GO!! Probably the most important is the Refiner and Blender net input.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w 2013-Sep | 09/06 | 834 | 09/13 | 842 | 09/20 | 852 | 09/27 | 846 | | | 2013-Oct | 10/04 | 868 | 10/11 | 857 | 10/18 | 851 | 10/25 | 870 | | | 2013-Nov | 11/01 | 859 | 11/08 | 874 | 11/15 | 853 | 11/22 | 837 | 11/29 | 837 |
Which is a measure of domestic demand.. (correct?)
Next would be production..
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_YOP_NUS_MBBLD&f=W 2013-Sep | 09/06 | 848 | 09/13 | 838 | 09/20 | 832 | 09/27 | 875 | | | 2013-Oct | 10/04 | 868 | 10/11 | 869 | 10/18 | 897 | 10/25 | 911 | | | 2013-Nov | 11/01 | 902 | 11/08 | 927 | 11/15 | 904 | 11/22 | 927 | 11/29 | 913 |
And Finally stocks..
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W
2013-Sep | 09/06 | 16,269 | 09/13 | 16,178 | 09/20 | 15,613 | 09/27 | 15,509 | | | 2013-Oct | 10/04 | 15,390 | 10/11 | 15,419 | 10/18 | 15,499 | 10/25 | 14,961 | | | 2013-Nov | 11/01 | 15,165 | 11/08 | 15,153 | 11/15 | 15,083 | 11/22 | 15,022 | 11/29 | 15,124 |
So we produced 913 and used 837 and yet Stocks only went up 14.57 b/d.. So I assume that the other 61.43 b/d was exported..???
So far for the Crop year we are sitting at 885.46 b/d which is on track for a grind of 4,883.. Just under USDA's 4,900.. or 889 b/d'ish.. however we are above that pace after a slow September was constrained by low stocks of corn as plants waited on the crop to come in.
Edited by JonSCKs 12/11/2013 10:05
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