The average of the local elevators that I've checked with is 45% sold.. though that ranges from 30 to near 60% and I believe the 60% is a little high.. say 40% and we may (??) be in an area that is high..???


Nation-wide we've already ground, fed and exported at least 4 byn bushels by now.. Last year the first quarter used 3.8 byn and we are above that..already into week 2 of Q2 so.. 3,800 Q1 + 500 Q2 = 4,300/14,000 = .31 gone.


IF we have a 14 byn bu crop and nation-wide 40% is sold = 5,600 sold - 4,300 used = 1,300 in inventory and using 275 / wk = 4.7 weeks worth.


For a 14 byn bu crop.. that isn't very much.. The locals are hitting the hedged inventory pretty hard.. clawing their way to Jan 1.. THIS is pretty stout..


   

http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/basis/maps/archives/2013/December/1/basismaps.asp?image=Devcorn201345.jpg


Like Clay pointed out below..

Well, I will try not to step on Ray J's toes here, but your post got me to go dig some old basis history out from his facility at Eddyville.  Between the start of harvest and today's date in 2007 their best basis day (12/3/2007) was -5 cents, for the same time slot in 2008 they topped out at +6 cents (12/8/2008.)   Their bid tonight is +23 cents CZ13.  So still historically very, very strong.

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=436315&mid=3505826#M3505826

The BULK of the corn export ship program starts post Jan 1st.. Like a Billion bushels..+ (26 mmt's)  NO WAY we can enter that with hedged inventories this low..  as we'll probably shrink the hedge book and the farmer would be staring down spring planting at some point.. ("love to ship ya some bushels but can't this month..") 

They don't have enough pryed loose...


And the funds are short 100,000 contracts.. nearly 500 myn bushels...
  

Should we add to our SX 14?