Ok.....I have stewed on this all weekend as to whether to post on this or not.  Let me be clear, I do not know which direction beans will go today - but I think the market bears watching closely the next couple weeks.  If Jan beans are going to make new highs, it should be come pretty evident.  If it starts to dance, there is likely a problem.  To understand this a bit, lets look back at corn from 2013.

In the dec 14 corn chart, buyers tried to buy corn at $5.00.  They made a crack at making new highs, and could NOT do it....and this effort was in the middle of the 2012 drought.  Price then drifted lower all spring, regardless of tight supplies, strong basis on old crop.  Then enter March of 2013.  The midwest was engulfed in one of the worst droughts of record, and mother nature snaps back to give us one of the wettest springs on record in many areas.  Millions of acres of corn did not get planted.  It's June 15, and price is here.....which way were you thinking corn was going? 

Yeah...not to many saw that coming...Admittedly, I saw it, but I denied it...shame on me.   

One of the glorious things about price action is we can make high probability projections of where price would end up in the future.  Yeah, I know, why didn't you tell me that back in july.  There were posted charts that made those projections back then.  Absolutely, they were hard to accept.....for me too.  But here we are.  No since crying over woulda coulda shoulda's....what can we learn from this?

 So let's now a look at the current Jan beans chart.  Buyers made a fantastic effort at making new highs, but failed.  Again, this was in the same backdrop as last season, drought, drowding, late planting, early frost....you remember it well.  Although this chart doesn't show it because it was prepared before the close on Friday, but price made a HH near the close, but did not close there.  Ok, the skeptic in me is asking why?  There had to be sell stop orders there from the shorts getting caught in coil the last couple months, and there certainly were breakout buy orders there to fuel a rally into the close, but instead it faltered......why?   So, the question begs to be asked, which direction are beans going?

IMHO, beans are in a pivotable place.  I can make arguements both ways here, I have no position, and am NOT a bean grower.  I can make the case for price in both directions.   I just wanted to crack the door to what might be in the cards if price starts to dance next week, it may not pay to be "bull headed".  Its just a repeatable pattern we have seen over and over...like silver earlier this year, and the likely coming of $70 crude do to the "marathon negotiations" this weekend., that price projected nearly a year ago..........But don't worry, if beans get crushed it will be oils fault........ :->

Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving!