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Red River Valley | If the crop is above 13.25 bb one could reasonably expect Dec-Mar to move out to a 16-18 carry IMO and for each month after that to move to around 11
The funds that are short are not the Goldman type funds they are short term trading funds vs the Goldman fund which is a long only Inflation hedge type fund. So the net effects on the Goldman roll will be subdued.
I would expect a little more volatility ahead of the Goldman Roll as the front running trader funds skin a little of the big cat.
btw if this crop is above 14bb you could see about 21 to the March if below 12.1 we might be at the best we can get. | |
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Harvest activity happening sooner than expected.
