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Buxton ND | This week they pointed out the US drought Monitor map 3 times. 3 separated time during the show.
Compare this year maps with last year maps,TOTALLY different deal....................
Tom G and Chris B,I always like listening to Tom,but Chris talked about building corn demand in the same sentence as E -plants,REALLY HARD to "Built demand anything over 4.8-4.9 BB with falling gasoline demand while we're fighting Big Oil. Chris did not say anything about cattle placements down 10% year over year,hard to built demand there when 10% of your mouths are GONE. Hogs and birds I'm not the guy on this subject,except for the east coast boys HAVE feed a lot of SA corn in the last year,this fact is backed up by USDA's import #'s
Chris (farmer Chris) say he thought corn yield would be down 7-10% OK call it 8.5% off of say 155 is = is one 142 give this show was taped September 6th I find hard to believe....... Yes I know its very dry,more so in some areas,late late muddling in planting corn,beans,wheat nasty root system. My Dad loved to "mud the crop in" I ran the combine,I saw what it did,,,,,kept telling him why are you working this stuff so wet,,,,,after I roll up the drill.......................
Tom did bring up spec funds,short corn,long beans I would guess he follows them closer then I,but he never really puts any #'s to when or compare to 1,6,12 months ago... And that Chris is about as under sold as most are..... In the next 6 weeks this "under sold factor" IS going to be a big deal,put in some farmer hedge pressure,,,when the fund sure seem to want to remain short corn,,,from a money flows stand point this could get quite nasty................ If/when,I'm leaning towards the when side, we break $4.50/4.17ish more so made worse if some of all those exports bookings in corn would "just start" to get cancel,different year,different crop then 2012. As we learning last year in beans it DOES NOT take 20-30 ship loads to break canceled to break the market.............................................This statement above,if it comes into play,,, YES its an "IF",,,,,, really I have no clue what the funds well will do/trade. From a technical/money flows stand point,they will the 200 day(month) on a monthly chart OR worse yet the lows of 2008-09-10 by Halloween
US Farm Report had this map of PP'd corn AND beans acres in 4 state (they left out ND but we're not a big deal anyways) ((sorry Ontario guy)) I added up THEIR FSA #'s 2.119 ma in those 4 states. IS THAT ALL I'd say ? ? ? Plus this PP has long been priced in to the bull side.
Then we had cute little Tyne Morgan up in the plane AGAIN,showing clips of the nasty's in northern Iowa/southern MN AGAIN...............HOW MANY times does USFARM REPORT have to feature the nasty's THAT HAVE BEEN WELL PRICED IN for My Lord 3 months now,when ZCZ traded to 5.70ish 3 TIMES................................................................................................................................................................................................................This show is turning into a puppet show ! ! !
YES we have lost bushels of corn,more so beans in the last 2 weeks,IMO there's enough extra corn in SA,Ukraine,SA beans and world wide wheat to make up for our short falls. AGAIN......Beans,,,,,,,,mmmmmmmmmmmmmm,,,,,,,,,,,,IDK with the fund sitting @ 166k net long
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US Farm Report/Supply,Supply,Supply
