"So far the market does not believe we can cut corn yields enough to make the S&D for this coming year that tight this late in the game."

And yet the market will believe the USDA even after this?  




Local Cash prices when July futures went off the board "here" were around $6.80'ish.. Last night.. DTN shows just under 600 bids within a 300 mile radius over $6.00 with about 50 bids over $6.50... not much.. has changed in the cash market.. Meanwhile the Funds have poured heavily into short positions on the CME.. got a little spooked on Monday.. but started to put them back on yesterday..  So the standoff continues.


The question is HOW much will farmers sell new crop into the inversion.. We can just store it out here in the SW and the market will come back up as it has to bring bushels in from the Cornbelt anyway.. the key is what guys in Illinois.. Iowa.. etc do.. if they start to dump.. and sell into this rally while locking in crappy new crop basis.. that is the question.


I Still do not believe the 2013 Corn crop will yield over 13.5.. for basically the same reasons I said over a month ago..


http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=404449&posts=18#M3221663           


(might strike the word "frost" and insert the word "heat" but anywho.. record trendline yields while adding 11 myn acres of fringe production WILL NOT yield the expected outcome..)

It will be interesting to see how the inversion is resolved..  Are we going to stay at $6.50?  Probably not.. are we going to $4.50.. "probably not."    In 2011 USDA overestimated the corn crop by 1.15 byn bushels.. if they repeat that error this year.. that puts us around 13.0.. that's probably even a little smaller than where I'm at.. but the first 500 myn is gonna come off pretty easily..  I'll wait to see how far the damage goes... 13.4.. 13.3.. 13.2.. 12.8..???
   

btw.. just to repeat my position..  "I believe USDA's overestimation ERROR comes from taking ADDED Fringe acres.. CRP acres in the Cornbelt.. fringe acres etc.. and multiplying THAT times historical trend yields.. THAT is why they are too high these past three years."  (and last year's drought probably contributed to that 4 byn bu miss also..;-)


So what has changed this year to correct it..??      



    


lol.. "not much."