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Boone Co. Iowa | Hedge, you might be right. I stopped by local market guru today and wanted to get his opinion. He's helped my dad learn a lot about marketing, works for local co-op. He's an old timer and has seen a lot. Told a story about how "we" were burnt up 30+ years ago, and the market just kept going down - our poor pocket just wasn't big enough to change the Chicago Board of Trade. And maybe the Chicago board has things figured out, worldwide supply and worldwide demand.
There were a dozen ears on the counter, and he was guessing what the yield would be, @ 32K pop. We went from 180 to 80 bu. / acre. Corn was JUST starting to dent. Two ears from another field, poorly pollinated and WAY behind, small and at blister stage. We figured if that was the entire field, it would be a zero. Tipback on the good corn was unbelievable.
I guess I am in the camp that I'll take my insurance money, and hold on until January and see what the USDA thinks. If I felt like I had the crop to sell, I'd sell. But I'm looking at say, 130 bu / acre (aph of 182) and beans, well, I've seen low 40 bu beans, and we will be below that I think. Hard for me to fathom what bean yields will be. I'd agree, guys who have a crop out there, sell the snot out of it. I've taken lots of profits last 5 years and guess I will be licking my wounds. I'd love to cheer this thing down to $4.00 on the board and collect my insurance. I figure I'll collect until we get to $7.05 on the board....and beans will have to get to $15.80 or so before I might not collect insurance there....
So, I don't have the crop this year....I did last year, and several years prior.....Market action, Fed actions, stock markets, commodities, all are telling me this is going to get worse and I'm going to hold down to low $4 or maybe even $3....guess I have really turned into a farmer; saw my dad do same thing a time or two in his lifetime....guess it is my turn to ride the bear lower than I think it can go...
See what drought map brings Thursday, and see what crop conditions Monday are....we are still a month behind a normal year, and approximately 6-8 weeks behind last year's early harvest.....I'm afraid that Chicago just hasn't factored in how that can affect the yields....Cool July just allowed us to kick the can down the road...now the can looks to be getting the first half of the semi trailer, and back tires look to be headed straight for the rest of the can.
Local market guru has lots of experience, and our area last year, 150-170 caught most of the corn....this year, looks like it is going to be zero, to 100 to 140. And if you drive in about any direction for 45 miles, most is worse, pockets are better. This is the year we find out if Iowa matters or not.
I'll be curious how hard local e-plants push basis....I doubt farmers will be willing sellers around here....
There will definitely be lessons learned this year. Biggest one will probably be that YES, the funds did pump an extra dollar or two into the grains when they were long. 2nd biggest will be that the Chicago board of trade is doing a poor job of reflecting supply and demand. The best marketing, in my opinion, is going to be the guy who knows local supply / demand picture and can make phone calls and truck and pick up a dime or two on most of their bushels. I'm getting a sense that what someplace "posts" online is not the set in stone price.....making some phone calls, the buyers are going to have to earn their crop.
Sorry for my rambling post....Final question to growers out there....where are the "PILES" going to be??? Two years ago, we had LOTS of BIG piles of corn here in Iowa....Where are the PILES going to be this year??? | |
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my guess in a month or so
