Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | Comparing Aug, '12 to Aug '13 FSA report acres with the USDA June planted acres reports
USDA June reports
Corn Soybean
'12 96.4 76.1
'13 97.4 77.7
Corn Planted&failed PP Soybean planted&failed PP
'12 93,008,292 255,080 74,910,188 159,229
'13 88,771,181 3,411,358 72,060,557 1,618,595
Diff 4,237,111 2,849,631
First, not all the acres planted are FSA program acres or even reported to FSA especially here in the "fringe". And not all farmers participate and report due to conflicts with requirements. I can imagine that the difference could easily be 10 million acres of corn. What is important is not the absolute numbers but the number relative the USDA planted acres and to last year when there was almost perfect planting conditions.
Second, in June '12 the USDA claimed 96.4 million A or corn planted while FSA reported 93.3 million planted, fail or PP giving 96.7%
This year, in June '13 the USDA claimed 97.4 million planted while FSA reported 92.2 million planted, failed, or PP If the same ratio of FSA to USDA then the actual planted acres might be only 95.4 which if I recall is more in line with the June trade expectations.
Third, the ratio of PP to Planted&failed this year is 3.8% so if you use this same figure and the 95.4 million acres number the corn PP is actually 3.66 million acres. This means there might be only 91.7to 93.7 million acres of corn actually planted. If harvested for grain is the typical 10% less then the harvested acres could be in the range of 82.5 to 84.3 million acres with a yield of 154 bushel/A giving a total of 12.7 to 13 billion bushels.
You can do the same analsis for soybeans and we haven't even considered the failed acres.
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